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Standing beside Iraq’s new prime minister at the Oval Office in mid-July, U.S. President Donald Trump was effusive. Ali al-Zaidi had “tremendous chemistry” with him, Trump declared, going on to imply he was “good for America.” Then—twice in the space of a few minutes—Trump said Zaidi was going to be there “for a long time.” Iraq, Trump added, had “tremendous wealth, not only potential.” The president also joked that his guest was “young, and he’s handsome, which I don’t like.”

The warmth is not incidental. It reflects an emerging U.S. approach to the Levant, cultivated above all by Trump’s envoy and longtime friend Tom Barrack: Identify leaders who can centralize state power, back them personally, and then count on them to serve U.S. interests by pushing back against Iranian influence and opening their economies to American business.

Standing beside Iraq’s new prime minister at the Oval Office in mid-July, U.S. President Donald Trump was effusive. Ali al-Zaidi had “tremendous chemistry” with him, Trump declared, going on to imply he was “good for America.” Then—twice in the space of a few minutes—Trump said Zaidi was going to be there “for a long time.” Iraq, Trump added, had “tremendous wealth, not only potential.” The president also joked that his guest was “young, and he’s handsome, which I don’t like.”

The warmth is not incidental. It reflects an emerging U.S. approach to the Levant, cultivated above all by Trump’s envoy and longtime friend Tom Barrack: Identify leaders who can centralize state power, back them personally, and then count on them to serve U.S. interests by pushing back against Iranian influence and opening their economies to American business.

Where recent U.S. governments often spoke of power sharing and negotiated political settlements when discussing Middle East governance, the Trump administration is openly wagering on strongmen. Zaidi is not an isolated case. Earlier in the summer, Trump met with Syrian President Ahmed al-Sharaa on the sidelines of the NATO summit. Saying that Syria had been “a very disjointed place,” he praised Sharaa for having “unified the country in a very short period of time.” Sharaa, Trump said, was “a strong person” and “a great leader.”

Finally, this week, Trump hosted Lebanese President Joseph Aoun, the first Lebanese head of state invited to the White House in more than 15 years. He clearly seemed eager to fold Aoun into the same project, saying, “you have tremendous spirit on your side.” Then, when asked how the Lebanese leader compared to Zaidi, Trump offered that he too was “handsome.”

But as Trump doubles down on Middle Eastern strongmen, the question has already emerged: Will these bets pay off? The region’s recent and long-term history suggests that the answer is no.

For Trump, the appeal of these leaders lies in their promise of durability and control. A single interlocutor who commands the state, its security forces, and its economy is worth more to Washington than a shaky coalition, because such a leader can personally advance U.S. interests. For Trump, this means rolling back Iran’s allies and aligning with the United States’, Israel included.

It also means signing oil and reconstruction deals with American firms and maintaining........

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