Zimbabwe came to a standstill on March 31. As the military filled the streets in response to a planned protest, citizens stayed inside, fearing clashes between demonstrators and state authorities. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s efforts to extend his second term in office until 2030—formally known as the 2030 agenda—has spurred calls for a public uprising. Mnangagwa, banned by the constitution from running for a third term, is attempting to extend his current one with the support of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). If successful, there will be time to amend the constitutional term limit to provide Mnangagwa with a third one.

The protests against the 2030 agenda were called for by Blessed Geza, a former member of ZANU-PF’s Central Committee and an associate of the war veterans, an aging but influential group of guerrilla war fighters who helped create contemporary Zimbabwe in 1980. The group’s role in ending white minority rule is central to ZANU-PF’s legitimacy. Many veterans occupy and influence key roles in the military and intelligence services. A subset of the veterans access state spoils and power, and in turn, enforce the party’s rule.

Zimbabwe came to a standstill on March 31. As the military filled the streets in response to a planned protest, citizens stayed inside, fearing clashes between demonstrators and state authorities. Zimbabwean President Emmerson Mnangagwa’s efforts to extend his second term in office until 2030—formally known as the 2030 agenda—has spurred calls for a public uprising. Mnangagwa, banned by the constitution from running for a third term, is attempting to extend his current one with the support of the ruling Zimbabwe African National Union-Patriotic Front (ZANU-PF). If successful, there will be time to amend the constitutional term limit to provide Mnangagwa with a third one.

The protests against the 2030 agenda were called for by Blessed Geza, a former member of ZANU-PF’s Central Committee and an associate of the war veterans, an aging but influential group of guerrilla war fighters who helped create contemporary Zimbabwe in 1980. The group’s role in ending white minority rule is central to ZANU-PF’s legitimacy. Many veterans occupy and influence key roles in the military and intelligence services. A subset of the veterans access state spoils and power, and in turn, enforce the party’s rule.

The March protest was underwhelming, ending with minor clashes and a few dozen arrested. However, the unrest came when Mnangagwa sacked or demoted several top officials within the security forces to ensure loyalty among the senior brass. While seemingly unrelated to the unrealized uprising, the two actions highlight the ZANU-PF’s intensifying internal power struggles.

Tensions are simmering amid multiple crises—a fractured political opposition, a fraying economy, and a civil society under siege—creating a perfect storm for intraparty conflicts to erupt and push Zimbabwe toward crisis.

The conflict within ZANU-PF is a continuation of an unresolved, decades-long power struggle over party leadership. Mnangagwa himself came to power amid heightened divisions in ZANU-PF when he and his principal deputy, Vice President Constantino Chiwenga, collaborated to remove then-President Robert Mugabe from power in 2017. Mugabe was one of ZANU-PF’s principal founders as a guerrilla movement amid the 15-year bush war that preceded independence. When he became Zimbabwe’s first head of state in 1980, white minority rule ended.

Despite Mugabe’s brutal elimination of dissent, intraparty succession tensions simmered for decades. Initially........

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