Analysis and updates

As Washington debates its role in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, U.S. policymakers will be forced to choose between two competing visions for the Middle East. In recent years, Arab countries have increasingly sought to integrate Iran into the region rather than confront it. Israel, by contrast, believes it cannot accept a regionally integrated Iran. With these rival goals in mind, America’s Gulf allies are hoping Washington will help de-escalate the conflict, while Israel is hoping Washington will join its fight against the Islamic Republic.

Well before Israel’s unprecedented June 13 attack on Iran, a push for regional integration was already underway. It is difficult to pinpoint an exact date marking the start of this journey. One momentous event, however, stands out: the Sept. 14, 2019, attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. Claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia, the attack disrupted around 50 percent of Saudi oil production. More importantly, the U.S. non-response to the strike served as a watershed moment for the Gulf. Many came to believe they were in the crosshairs of a burgeoning U.S.-Iran conflict but could not rely on the United States to protect them in the event of a major Iranian attack.

As Washington debates its role in the escalating conflict between Israel and Iran, U.S. policymakers will be forced to choose between two competing visions for the Middle East. In recent years, Arab countries have increasingly sought to integrate Iran into the region rather than confront it. Israel, by contrast, believes it cannot accept a regionally integrated Iran. With these rival goals in mind, America’s Gulf allies are hoping Washington will help de-escalate the conflict, while Israel is hoping Washington will join its fight against the Islamic Republic.

Well before Israel’s unprecedented June 13 attack on Iran, a push for regional integration was already underway. It is difficult to pinpoint an exact date marking the start of this journey. One momentous event, however, stands out: the Sept. 14, 2019, attack on Saudi oil facilities at Abqaiq and Khurais. Claimed by the Iran-backed Houthi militia, the attack disrupted around 50 percent of Saudi oil production. More importantly, the U.S. non-response to the strike served as a watershed moment for the Gulf. Many came to believe they were in the crosshairs of a........

© Foreign Policy