For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists working on the Middle East worried that a war between Iran and Israel could quickly spill over into the Arab world. If Israel attacked Iran’s nuclear program, many assumed, Iran would retaliate against U.S. interests in neighboring Arab states. Fears centered on Iraq and Syria rather than the Gulf. Given that Iran had stabilized relations with the Gulf over the past few years, the thinking went, it would avoid actions that could upset its new ties.

On June 23, these theories were put to the test. After the United States launched missile attacks on Iranian nuclear sites, Tehran retaliated by striking U.S. bases in Qatar. It was an unprecedented act. Iranian proxies had targeted the Gulf previously, most prominently with the Houthi attacks on Saudi Aramco facilities in 2019 and on infrastructure in Abu Dhabi in 2022. In these cases, Tehran was able to maintain plausible deniability. But the Qatar attack was different. Iran launched missiles directly at Qatar, striking the regional headquarters of U.S. Central Command and the Al Udeid Air Base. Tehran may have informed Doha of its plans ahead of time and developments were largely controlled. But the fact remains that strikes on the tranquil Qatari state crossed a line.

For years, politicians, diplomats, analysts, and journalists working on the Middle East

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