Get audio access with any FP subscription. Subscribe Now ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Get audio access with any FP subscription.

ALREADY AN FP SUBSCRIBER? LOGIN

Over the past week, there has been a remarkable turnaround in supplies of crude oil making it out of the still-threatened Strait of Hormuz, with oil volumes returning nearly to prewar levels.

What is not leaving the strait—or many parts of Russia, or now China—are refined products such as gasoline and diesel. That means that despite the apparent success of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the U.S. Navy’s escorting of a steadily rising stream of tankers out of Hormuz, there will be little relief at the pump for consumers in the United States or Europe for months to come.

Over the past week, there has been a remarkable turnaround in supplies of crude oil making it out of the still-threatened Strait of Hormuz, with oil volumes returning nearly to prewar levels.

What is not leaving the strait—or many parts of Russia, or now China—are refined products such as gasoline and diesel. That means that despite the apparent success of the U.S. naval blockade of Iranian ports and the U.S. Navy’s escorting of a steadily rising stream of tankers out of Hormuz, there will be little relief at the pump for consumers in the United States or Europe for months to come.

The recovery in crude flows out of the Persian Gulf (and, for Saudi Arabia, out of its alternative port on the Red Sea) has been astonishing. From a rough average of about 6 million to 8 million barrels of oil a day in the middle of September, average weekly flows are now nearly double, or about 13.5 million barrels a day, according to shipping firm Kpler. Saudi Arabia, in particular, is outperforming even its 2025 export numbers, with huge amounts of crude exiting the Strait of Hormuz and significant volumes escaping via the Red Sea; Kpler estimates that Saudi crude exports are at least 6.4 million........

© Foreign Policy