Understanding the conflict three years on.

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One would think, three and a half years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that the West could come up with a way to choke off Russia’s energy exports, still the biggest single source of money for the Kremlin. And one would be wrong.

Little by little, the United States and Europe and the West have tried to tighten the screws on Russia’s ability to fund its war from revenues accrued in the energy business. There have been sanctions and oil price caps, individual designations of Russian businessmen and Kremlin cronies, and many angry social media posts. The West has gone after tankers and bankers, to little avail, for two main reasons. 

One would think, three and a half years into Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, that the West could come up with a way to choke off Russia’s energy exports, still the biggest single source of money for the Kremlin. And one would be wrong.

Little by little, the United States and Europe and the West have tried to tighten the screws on Russia’s ability to fund its war from revenues accrued in the energy business. There have been sanctions and oil price caps, individual designations of Russian businessmen and Kremlin cronies, and many angry social media posts. The West has gone after tankers and bankers, to little avail, for two main reasons. 

First, the Russian energy sector, from oil and natural gas to uranium exports, is surprisingly resilient. And second, especially this year, the United States has proved expectedly supine.

Russia’s earnings from energy exports have painted a flat line for the last two years. There was an initial dent just after Russia’s invasion, when sanctions kicked in, but Moscow still makes some $600 million a day, every day, from selling coal, oil, and natural gas to buyers around the world. 

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