Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: China is making ground on Taiwan in the region, Prabowo swings by Russia again, and Thailand sends mixed messages about AI.

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s Southeast Asia Brief.

The highlights this week: China is making ground on Taiwan in the region, Prabowo swings by Russia again, and Thailand sends mixed messages about AI.

A Shift in Stance on Taiwan

China is making ground on Taiwan in Southeast Asia.

The issue swam into view last month. First, the Indonesian navy performed a joint exercise with the Chinese navy off the east coast of Taiwan—which it then hastily downplayed.

A few days later, on Aug. 16, Al Jazeera aired an interview with Malaysian Prime Minister Anwar Ibrahim, in which he made comments suggesting sympathy with China taking military action against Taiwan.

“I always take Malaysia as an example. If one province decides to break away, do we use force? I think I will protect the sanctity and unity of the nation,” Anwar said when asked if he would condemn China using force against Taiwan.

Anwar subsequently walked back these comments, emphasizing that a peaceful approach was best.

However, while his comments were unusually strong, they reflect a slow drift from Malaysia toward Beijing’s line on the matter.

Just compare Malaysia and China’s joint statements past and present. One in 2014 affirmed that “Taiwan is an inseparable part of China” but also pointedly mentioned support for “peaceful reunification.” But in 2024 and again in 2025, there was no specific mention of peace.

Other countries have also dropped mentions of peace. Joint statements with Cambodia included it last in 2019 but not since 2022.

Thailand has also subtly shifted its position. In 2023, statements simply recognized “Taiwan as an inalienable part of China.” In 2025, new language appeared declaring that Thailand would not “support any call for the independence of Taiwan,” and in 2026, it “firmly supported peaceful reunification.”

The Philippines, while keeping to the “one China” policy, has usually taken a stiffer line on potential force against Taiwan. This reflects its closeness to the United States and its own strong stance against China in the South China Sea. However, this year has seen President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. soften somewhat.

Taiwan has attempted to bolster its position. In 2016, it launched the New Southbound policy, aimed at deepening diplomatic ties with the Association of Southeast Asian Nations (ASEAN) and India.

The ideological resonance of democracy can also cultivate sympathies in the region. From 2020 to 2021, citizens of Thailand, Myanmar, Taiwan, and Hong Kong expressed solidarity with one another in the face of authoritarian pressure from China and domestic governments.

Taiwan also sometimes pushes back. In July, Cambodia was removed from Taiwan’s visa-privilege programs, which all other ASEAN members are part of, because of........

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