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BUDAPEST—Viktor Orban placed his bet early, and he placed it smartly. A decade ago, in early 2016 he made a beeline for Donald Trump, later agreeing with Trump’s description of them both as “black sheep” who would get on well. This was at a time when the Republican maverick was seen as a long shot for the U.S. presidency.

“Orban had nothing to lose,” said Andras Biro-Nagy, director of Policy Solutions, a political research institute in Budapest. “He already had a terrible relationship with the Democrats.” From that moment, the MAGA movement saw Orban as its most important supporter in Europe, a continent that Trump ideologues denounced as liberal and “woke.” A succession of strategists from the inner circle, starting with Steve Bannon, began to spend time in Budapest.

BUDAPEST—Viktor Orban placed his bet early, and he placed it smartly. A decade ago, in early 2016 he made a beeline for Donald Trump, later agreeing with Trump’s description of them both as “black sheep” who would get on well. This was at a time when the Republican maverick was seen as a long shot for the U.S. presidency.

“Orban had nothing to lose,” said Andras Biro-Nagy, director of Policy Solutions, a political research institute in Budapest. “He already had a terrible relationship with the Democrats.” From that moment, the MAGA movement saw Orban as its most important supporter in Europe, a continent that Trump ideologues denounced as liberal and “woke.” A succession of strategists from the inner circle, starting with Steve Bannon, began to spend time in Budapest.

Even when Joe Biden came to power, that closeness didn’t wane. Orban kept a distance from official Washington, preferring the sanctum of Trump’s Mar-a-Lago resort in Florida.

This history matters, because in Hungary’s general election on April 12, Orban—Trump’s mentor, disciple, outrider—could be ejected after 16 consecutive years as prime minister (he also served four further years prior to that). Thanks to stagnant growth, deteriorating public services, and ever-entrenched corruption, Orban is losing his luster. Opinion polls show that the party formed by his chief opponent, Peter Magyar, has roughly a 10-point lead—though with several weeks of campaigning left, few........

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