Foreign & Public Diplomacy

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: China considers relevant lessons from the Iran war as the conflict winds down, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Myanmar’s leader in Beijing, and Chinese authorities issue national security warnings over “spy turtles.”

Welcome to Foreign Policy’s China Brief.

The highlights this week: China considers relevant lessons from the Iran war as the conflict winds down, Chinese President Xi Jinping hosts Myanmar’s leader in Beijing, and Chinese authorities issue national security warnings over “spy turtles.”

The Iran War’s Lessons for China

The Iran war may be nearing its end, after almost four months. On Sunday, U.S. President Donald Trump said the United States and Iran had reached a deal to end the conflict and that the Strait of Hormuz would soon reopen, though details remain scarce.

Assuming—perhaps optimistically—that the war is winding down, how is Beijing likely to react?

China will move quickly to cement relations with Iran’s new power brokers. Before the war, Beijing maintained strong ties with Tehran’s political establishment but had comparatively weaker connections to the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC), which now seems to be the dominant force within the country.

Chinese firms already have some links with the IRGC, and intelligence channels between the two countries exist as well, but China will likely seek a trusted interlocutor—perhaps an experienced Iranian diplomat who has successfully aligned with the new order. I would not be surprised to see senior IRGC figures quietly invited to Beijing by the end of the year.

If the United States ultimately lifts sanctions on Iran, that could strengthen Chinese willingness to defy U.S. sanctions more openly.  Chinese firms could grow bolder in this respect, calculating that any resulting confrontation would be backed by the central government. Beijing has already been experimenting with stronger enforcement of counter-sanctions laws while........

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