Brazil’s October presidential election offers sharply different visions of the country’s place in the world. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sees China as a partner in development and a counterweight to Western power. His principal challenger is Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Lula’s right-wing predecessor, who promises closer alignment with Washington.

Yet either outcome is likely to leave Brazil’s economic reliance on Beijing largely intact. Neither candidate offers a convincing strategy for managing the risks that dependence increasingly carries. Those risks have grown as China’s global engagement has become more powerful and assertive, its presence in Brazil has expanded from commodity purchases into strategically sensitive industries, and its rivalry with Washington has intensified.

Brazil’s October presidential election offers sharply different visions of the country’s place in the world. Incumbent President Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva sees China as a partner in development and a counterweight to Western power. His principal challenger is Sen. Flávio Bolsonaro, the son of Lula’s right-wing predecessor, who promises closer alignment with Washington.

Yet either outcome is likely to leave Brazil’s economic reliance on Beijing largely intact. Neither candidate offers a convincing strategy for managing the risks that dependence increasingly carries. Those risks have grown as China’s global engagement has become more powerful and assertive, its presence in Brazil has expanded from commodity purchases into strategically sensitive industries, and its rivalry with Washington has intensified.

Brazil needs a China strategy adapted to all three changes. The election debate remains organized around competing preferences for Beijing and Washington, with too little attention to the economic and diplomatic capabilities Brasília needs to preserve its freedom of action.

Lula’s approach has a coherent political logic. His electoral program prioritizes closer relations with the BRICS grouping and the global south, while he advocates greater use of national currencies in international transactions. China offers markets, investment, and technology, alongside support for a more influential Brazilian role in global governance. In this conception, cooperation with Beijing advances economic development and loosens the constraints of an international system shaped by Western power.

The practical agenda reflects that ambition. Lula’s May 2025 visit to Beijing produced 20 agreements, including cooperation on artificial intelligence. His government also seeks U.S. technology: In August, it announced separate supercomputing projects, one involving Huawei and iFlytek, another expected to attract Nvidia. Lula’s objective is to draw resources from several partners while retaining discretion over Brazil’s choices. China occupies an especially privileged position because its........

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