Analysis and updates

Since June 13, Israel has been carrying out a major military campaign against Iran, with the stated aim of destroying the country’s nuclear program. Although the United States first distanced itself from the strike, U.S. President Donald Trump later embraced it, posting on social media that he had warned Iran about the consequences of not making a deal. He also claimed that the strike was “excellent” and said it could make it more likely that Tehran accepts an agreement.

It is impossible to predict at this point how the war will evolve, let alone conclude. But chances are good that Israel’s attack on Iran will not have the effect that Trump hopes. Instead, it will make reaching a diplomatic agreement harder and increase the chances that Iran eventually builds a nuclear weapon.

Since June 13, Israel has been carrying out a major military campaign against Iran, with the stated aim of destroying the country’s nuclear program. Although the United States first distanced itself from the strike, U.S. President Donald Trump later embraced it, posting on social media that he had warned Iran about the consequences of not making a deal. He also claimed that the strike was “excellent” and said it could make it more likely that Tehran accepts an agreement.

It is impossible to predict at this point how the war will evolve, let alone conclude. But chances are good that Israel’s attack on Iran will not have the effect that Trump hopes. Instead, it will make reaching a diplomatic agreement harder and increase the chances that Iran eventually builds a nuclear weapon.

While Iran’s nuclear program was advanced—and was advancing—there’s been no evidence presented so far that Iran was dashing for a bomb. In his speech defending the military campaign, Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said that Iran had recently taken “steps to weaponize” its “enriched uranium.” But he also said that Iran’s timeline to a bomb “could be a year; it could be within a few months.”

Indeed, as recently as March, U.S. Director of National Intelligence Tulsi Gabbard testified that “Iran is not building a nuclear weapon” and said that Iranian Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei “has not authorized the nuclear weapons program he suspended in 2003.” Nor had........

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