U.S. President Joe Biden has taken steps to avenge the deaths of William Rivers, Kennedy Sanders, and Breonna Moffett, the three U.S. service members killed by an Iranian-backed militia strike in Jordan on Jan. 28. The United States launched strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Iraq on Feb. 2.

U.S. President Joe Biden has taken steps to avenge the deaths of William Rivers, Kennedy Sanders, and Breonna Moffett, the three U.S. service members killed by an Iranian-backed militia strike in Jordan on Jan. 28. The United States launched strikes on Iranian-linked targets in Syria and Iraq on Feb. 2.

Yet, whatever further steps Washington takes, shipping in the Strait of Hormuz will be in even more dire straits. Merchant vessels are deeply dependent on the waterway—where Iran, which controls one side of the strait, already regularly harasses shipping.

The strikes will, the United States hopes, send a clear message to Iran without escalating the indirect conflict into a direct one. Other acts of retaliation may follow. It “won’t just be a one-off,” National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby said on Jan. 31, adding that “the first thing you see won’t be the last thing.” Biden had already stressed that he doesn’t want escalation. “I don’t think we need a wider war in the Middle East. That’s not what I’m looking for,” he said on Jan. 30. But even if the fighting doesn’t spread, the strait just got a whole lot riskier.

The Strait of Hormuz is a crucial body of water. In 2022, 21 million barrels of oil traveled through the strait per day, which corresponds to 21 percent of the world’s global petroleum liquids consumption. It is also a chokepoint, a narrow body of water divided between Iran and Oman where traffic can easily be disrupted by storms, accidents, or willful acts by interested parties.

During the Iran-Iraq War in the 1980s, Iraq began attacking........

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