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“Don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool!” U.S. President Donald Trump implored Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a 2019 letter. The jury might be out on how tough or flexible Erdogan is, but he is certainly no fool. Indeed, he has proven his skill at playing Trump. Not long after receiving the White House’s missive (which he theatrically threw in the bin, according to reports), Erdogan got Washington to swallow a Turkish military intervention in Syria directed against the United States’ Kurdish allies.

On Sept. 25, the Turkish leader was back to the White House, ready to do more geopolitical business with his “valued friend,” Trump. But the fact that talks yielded so little highlights the extent to which the United States and Turkey diverge. The chemistry between Trump and Erdogan, two strongmen with reputations for wheeling and dealing, makes things better—but only slightly.

“Don’t be a tough guy. Don’t be a fool!” U.S. President Donald Trump implored Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan in a 2019 letter. The jury might be out on how tough or flexible Erdogan is, but he is certainly no fool. Indeed, he has proven his skill at playing Trump. Not long after receiving the White House’s missive (which he theatrically threw in the bin, according to reports), Erdogan got Washington to swallow a Turkish military intervention in Syria directed against the United States’ Kurdish allies.

On Sept. 25, the Turkish leader was back to the White House, ready to do more geopolitical business with his “valued friend,” Trump. But the fact that talks yielded so little highlights the extent to which the United States and Turkey diverge. The chemistry between Trump and Erdogan, two strongmen with reputations for wheeling and dealing, makes things better—but only slightly.

The reality is that the problems in U.S.-Turkish relations are baked in, and the opportunities for breakthroughs are small. Moreover, the stakes aren’t that high anymore, and U.S.-Turkish relations are a much duller affair than they were during Trump’s first term. As a result, both sides are happy to enjoy a photo op and pocket what wins they can.

Trump’s return to power has been hailed in Ankara as an opportunity. From the outset, Erdogan’s camp believed that the U.S. administration was amenable to Turkish interests. When Trump’s overtures to Moscow facilitated resumed........

© Foreign Policy