Understanding the conflict three years on.

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It has been more than 40 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, which means that it has been more than 40 months of economic sanctions being imposed on Russia. The very fact that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine revealed how the threat of sanctions failed as an instrument of deterrence—and Russia’s unceasing prosecution of the war since February 2022 is powerful evidence that they have failed as an instrument of coercion.

The question is, where do we go from here? This depends on who you ask. The Trump administration’s position on this subject has been erratic. U.S. President Donald Trump has periodically threatened to further ratchet up sanctions against Russia, only to back down every time. He recently imposed extremely high tariffs on India because that country has bought Russian oil—yet he failed to impose similar measures against China, which imports even more Russian oil.

It has been more than 40 months since Russia invaded Ukraine, which means that it has been more than 40 months of economic sanctions being imposed on Russia. The very fact that Russia launched its full-scale invasion of Ukraine revealed how the threat of sanctions failed as an instrument of deterrence—and Russia’s unceasing prosecution of the war since February 2022 is powerful evidence that they have failed as an instrument of coercion.

The question is, where do we go from here? This depends on who you ask. The Trump administration’s position on this subject has been erratic. U.S. President Donald Trump has periodically threatened to further ratchet up sanctions against Russia, only to back down every time. He recently imposed extremely high tariffs on India because that country has bought Russian oil—yet he failed to impose similar measures against China, which imports even more Russian oil.

U.S. Secretary of State Marco Rubio, who was a Russia sanctions advocate while serving in the Senate, sounds more skeptical now. On Meet the Press last month, he said, “I don’t think new sanctions on Russia are going to force him [Russian President Vladimir Putin] to accept the cease-fire. They’re already under very severe sanctions. … There is no evidence that more sanctions [will work], because sanctions take months and sometimes years to bite, and we may very well wind up in that place.”

On the other hand, sanctions proponents argue that if the current efforts at economic coercion have failed, then the answer is to try, try again. On Sept. 7, the director of the White House National Economic Council, Kevin Hassett,

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