FP’s look ahead

The U.S. midterm elections in November are sure to capture global attention, and President Donald Trump has already spearheaded efforts in Republican-led states to redraw congressional maps and bolster his party. Elsewhere, dozens of countries are also due to hold consequential national elections. The U.S. president has signaled intent to meddle in a few of them, too.

After swaying Argentine voters with promises of economic relief if they backed their right-wing president’s party in midterms last October, Trump has suggested that he may pull a similar stunt to protect Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in general elections this year. He has also waded into a contentious debate in Israel, urging a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a sprawling corruption trial.

The U.S. midterm elections in November are sure to capture global attention, and President Donald Trump has already spearheaded efforts in Republican-led states to redraw congressional maps and bolster his party. Elsewhere, dozens of countries are also due to hold consequential national elections. The U.S. president has signaled intent to meddle in a few of them, too.

After swaying Argentine voters with promises of economic relief if they backed their right-wing president’s party in midterms last October, Trump has suggested that he may pull a similar stunt to protect Hungarian Prime Minister Viktor Orban in general elections this year. He has also waded into a contentious debate in Israel, urging a pardon for Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu in a sprawling corruption trial.

Countries that have upset Trump are girding against possible threats. Last month, he warned Colombia, where a leftist is leading polls, that it could be “next” in the deadly U.S. military campaign in the Caribbean. Brazil already endured U.S. intervention in its judiciary after convicting its Trump-aligned former leader; now, the right wing will attempt an electoral comeback.

Still, most elections this year focus chiefly on domestic affairs. In Bangladesh and Nepal, voters will head to the polls for the first time after youth-led protests ousted longtime leaders. But in Bangladesh at least, they will still contend with dynastic politics—which have also been a source of instability in Thailand. There, as in Nepal, fractious coalitions have created a revolving door of prime ministers in recent years, leading to snap elections.

Several nations—including Armenia, Ethiopia, Israel, Lebanon, and Thailand—are voting amid or in the immediate aftermath of armed conflict. Some leaders have committed to ambitious agendas to mitigate the potential for future war, while others are aiming to capitalize on nationalist fervor at the ballot box. Haiti and South Sudan may not officially be fighting wars, but chronic instability and violence could threaten electoral integrity in both countries.

Here are a dozen presidential and parliamentary races to watch around the world this year.

JUMP TO ELECTION

People’s Party leader Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut accepts donations from a supporter at a party recruitment event in Bangkok on Aug. 10, 2024.Lauren DeCicca/Getty Images

Thailand will hold elections on Feb. 8, following Prime Minister Anutin Charnvirakul’s dissolution of parliament last month. That is a year earlier than planned—the result of a scandal related to clashes along the Cambodian-Thai border.

Cambodia and Thailand’s dispute over their shared boundary dates to the French colonial period. Last May, a border skirmish that killed a Cambodian soldier led to an escalation in violence. Despite a cease-fire brokered by U.S. President Donald Trump in July, fighting resumed last month.

Thailand’s political troubles picked up in June, when Cambodian strongman Hun Sun leaked a phone call with then-Thai Prime Minister Paetongtarn Shinawatra, in which she called Hun Sen “uncle” and used deferential language. The recording led Thailand’s Constitutional Court to suspend and later remove Paetongtarn from office, saying that she violated ethical standards. Paetongtarn led the Pheu Thai party, which her father founded in 1998.

Paetongtarn was the second prime minister to hold office since Thailand’s 2023 elections. In that contest, a different party earned a plurality of votes—the reformist Move Forward. But the party did not receive authorization to form a government from the Senate, which was at the time entirely appointed by the ruling junta. Instead, centrist Pheu Thai partnered with the conservative Bhumjaithai party in a coalition.

Bhumjaithai left the coalition after Paetongtarn’s call with Hun Sen was leaked and nominated Anutin as prime minister in September, but he could only secure the position with the help of the People’s Party—the latest iteration of Move Forward. The People’s Party agreed to support Anutin if he called elections within four months. Yet after the latest border clashes, the People’s Party threatened a no-confidence vote, leading Anutin to dissolve parliament last month.

Thailand’s House of Representatives has 500 seats, of which 400 are directly elected; the remaining 100 are allocated to parties via a complex apportionment system. In February, voters will likely also weigh in on referendums proposing some constitutional reforms and the revocation of border agreements with Cambodia.

The People’s Party and its leader, Natthaphong Ruengpanyawut, are ahead in polls. However, as their past experience shows, winning the most votes doesn’t necessarily translate into forming a government, especially for critics of the establishment.

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The recent conflict has shifted domestic politics in both countries.
By Andrew Nachemson

Bangladesh Nationalist Party activists march through the streets of Dhaka, Bangladesh, on May 28.Abdul Goni/AFP via Getty Images

Bangladesh will hold a general election on Feb. 12. The country was last featured in this roundup two years ago, but the 2026 election will be a very different contest. Months after the much-criticized 2024 vote, Generation Z-led mass protesters forced the resignation of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina, who had ruled Bangladesh for 15 years for the Awami League party.

Hasina is now living in exile in India, and a Bangladeshi court recently sentenced her to death in absentia for crimes against humanity. Nobel laureate economist Muhammad Yunus has led an interim government since August 2024. A reluctant entrant into politics, Yunus will not stand in February’s vote. “I came from another world. I’ll go back to my world,” he told NPR.

While in office, Yunus has expanded Bangladesh’s ties to China and erstwhile rival Pakistan. In his core area of expertise—economics—Yunus has had to contend with steep U.S. tariffs, which threaten Bangladesh’s vital garment exports. But growth had slowed across major sectors even before the U.S. levies.

Yunus, who is officially nonpartisan, hasn’t managed to temper Bangladesh’s divisive political culture. For most of the country’s history, power has alternated between the Awami League and its rival, the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP), leading to retributive politics. Hasina also outlawed the largest Islamist party, Jamaat-e-Islami.

Now, the tables have turned. Yunus’s caretaker government banned the Awami League from political activities and allowed Jamaat-e-Islami to contest elections again. Human rights abuses and mob violence continue, this time targeting religious minorities as well as Awami League supporters. And rising Islamism threatens women’s political participation.

Ahead of the February election, polls show that the BNP and Jamaat-e-Islami are neck and neck. In the Hasina era, the two parties were allies, but since her ouster, they have become rivals. Also competing is the new, student-led National Citizen Party, an outgrowth of the anti-Hasina protests.

Although the BNP is poised to win a plurality, there are questions about who will assume the party mantle. Longtime leader Khaleda Zia died late last month; her son Tarique Rahman recently returned to Bangladesh after spending nearly two decades in exile in the United Kingdom.

Bangladesh’s unicameral parliament has 350 members, 300 of whom are directly elected; the remaining 50 are quota seats designated for women. Bangladeshis will also vote in a referendum to approve a set of constitutional reforms known as the July Charter, named for the uprising against Hasina.

Hasina’s son has threatened revenge if the Awami League remains barred from the February vote. “We will not allow elections without the Awami League to go ahead,” he told Reuters last November. “Our protests are going to get stronger and stronger. … There’s probably going to be violence in Bangladesh before these elections.”

Last month, protesters rioted in Dhaka after the assassination of an anti-Hasina protest leader who had hoped to run in the election.

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Rising Islamism at home and a shift toward China on the global stage bring political and diplomatic risks.
By Sumit Ganguly

Young Nepalis celebrate after capturing government offices and other ministries during protests in Kathmandu, Nepal, on Sept. 9, 2025.Skanda Gautam/SOPA Images/LightRocket via Getty Images

Last September, Nepal experienced a brief Generation Z uprising that led Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to resign and set the stage for a March 5 election.

Protesters took to the streets after the government banned major social media platforms, ostensibly for noncompliance. Many Nepalis suspected that the move was intended to suppress dissent, particularly an online campaign calling out corruption and lack of economic opportunity.

Demonstrators vandalized government buildings, including parliament, and the military was deployed to........

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