Ongoing reports and analysis

Even in a region as angry, dysfunctional, and conflict-ridden as the Middle East, it’s hard to believe we’re entering the third year of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza—a conflict that has now surpassed in duration, horror, fury, and blood all previous Israeli-Palestinian confrontations. There is now a recently minted U.S. peace plan on the table, but its salience and relevance are yet to be tested.

Maybe we are hostage to pessimistic realism born of experience, having been around so many well-intentioned but failed peace plans and negotiations. But we’re wary of events and initiatives that are marketed as game-changers, inflection points, sea changes, and transformations designed to bring about peace forever—especially those that are not connected to a process for reaching agreement or implementing them.

Even in a region as angry, dysfunctional, and conflict-ridden as the Middle East, it’s hard to believe we’re entering the third year of the Israel-Hamas war in Gaza—a conflict that has now surpassed in duration, horror, fury, and blood all previous Israeli-Palestinian confrontations. There is now a recently minted U.S. peace plan on the table, but its salience and relevance are yet to be tested.

Maybe we are hostage to pessimistic realism born of experience, having been around so many well-intentioned but failed peace plans and negotiations. But we’re wary of events and initiatives that are marketed as game-changers, inflection points, sea changes, and transformations designed to bring about peace forever—especially those that are not connected to a process for reaching agreement or implementing them.

Much about the post-Oct. 7, 2023, Middle East, two years on, thus remains depressingly, even horrifyingly, familiar. Nonetheless, there are some takeaways that are new and potentially significant—ones that not just reflect current headlines but also may well shape future trend lines to come. These will constitute the choices and policies for U.S. policymakers.

After eight months of on again/off again Israel-Palestine diplomacy, the plan that U.S. President Donald Trump unveiled on Sept. 29 is a presidential plan, with Trump himself taking on the role of chairman of the “peace board” that is to oversee the process. Unlike previous efforts, from which Trump backed away when either Israel or Hamas balked at the proposal on the table, it will be near impossible for Trump to walk away this time.

The president’s challenge will be to stop viewing the conflict as a real estate deal with economic incentives, and to understand and address the parties’ existential narratives. All Palestinians want........

© Foreign Policy