Since Myanmar’s military overthrew the country’s democratically elected government in 2021, it has ruled with devastating violence. Junta forces have bombed civilians in a bid to suppress rebellious provinces, killing thousands. Junta-supported paramilitary groups have targeted political opponents and their families. And the regime has furthered an ethnic cleansing campaign against the Rohingya, a Muslim-minority population. Since 2017, Myanmar’s military has killed tens of thousands of Rohingya and exiled hundreds of thousands more to neighboring Bangladesh; in early 2025, the junta cut off food and supplies to the 130,000 Rohingya in Myanmar living in prison-like refugee camps, leading to starvation and disease.

Distracted by crises elsewhere and reconsidering its geopolitical priorities, the United States has mostly ignored the situation in Myanmar. American policymakers have also assumed that the risks of entanglement in the country—which has a long history of periods of military rule—outweigh the rewards. But U.S. passivity has not just contributed to the dire circumstances for civilians in Myanmar. It has also undercut the United States’ position in Asia by creating space for China to exploit Myanmar’s instability. Beijing, willing to back any regime regardless of its ideology or tactics, has stepped into the breach left by Washington’s inaction.

It is not too late for a change in U.S. strategy. Despite years of sitting on the sidelines, the United States has an opportunity to reassert itself in seeking to end the depredations of the junta and advance the cause of democracy in Myanmar. Myanmar’s military junta is struggling financially, even with Chinese support, and the United States has a powerful economic arsenal it can deploy. If the United States has the will to regain its influence in Myanmar and the region, there are straightforward ways it can use economic tools to shape the balance of power in Myanmar.

China has long had its sights on Myanmar as part of its larger Belt and Road Initiative, a vast infrastructure investment program that seeks to boost China’s growth prospects and political influence. Myanmar’s strategic location between China’s southwestern provinces and the Indian Ocean has made it a priority for leaders in Beijing, who have inked numerous deals for Chinese-backed ports, railways, and pipelines.

One of China’s key projects in Myanmar, the Kyaukpyu port in Rakhine State, along the country’s long western coastline, reveals Beijing’s playbook. The deep-water port will allow large Chinese cargo and energy ships to bypass the Strait of Malacca, the narrow waterway between Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore through which China conducts two-thirds of its maritime trade and imports 80 percent of its oil. Port access in Myanmar provides China a way to maneuver around a potential U.S.-led blockade in the Strait of Malacca if conflict arose, for instance, in the Taiwan Strait.

The port and its accompanying special economic zone are estimated to cost $10 billion. Chinese state-owned enterprises are financing the effort and will control the port’s operations. China International Trust Investment Corporation, one of China’s largest such enterprises, will hold a 70 percent stake in the port and will have an exclusive contract to operate it for 50 years, with a possible 25-year extension. Former high-level officials in Myanmar’s deposed civilian government estimate that half the remaining 30 percent stake held by Myanmar is loaned from........

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