How Europe Can Get Putin’s Attention
“I believe we should talk to Putin,” Finnish President Alexander Stubb said in an early June interview. It was a revealing admission. Stubb has, for years, been one of Europe’s most pro-Ukraine politicians and generally hawkish toward the Kremlin. But now, Stubb told journalists, ignoring Russian President Vladimir Putin was becoming untenable. “This border will remain,” he said, referring to his country’s 833-mile boundary with Russia. “At some point, we will have to maintain political relations.”
Stubb is hardly the only European politician who has recently advocated talking to the Kremlin. French President Emmanuel Macron spoke in favor of it back in February, as did Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni in June. These European leaders are motivated, in part, by a sense that high-level diplomacy could yield a deal that finally ends the war in Ukraine. But they are also motivated by a desire to stabilize the increasingly dangerous Russian-European relationship, which has yielded an uncontrolled arms race; Russian hybrid operations on EU territory, such as its arson attacks in the United Kingdom and drone incursions on Europe’s east; and an overall growing risk of direct military confrontation. The continent, in other words, is looking for ways to contain a potential crisis and prevent escalation.
Europe’s leaders are right to want to speak with Putin. But they do not yet have a path forward for doing so. They do not, at the most basic level, know who should talk to the Kremlin on the continent’s behalf. More important, they are not quite sure what should be on the agenda.
To answer these questions, the continent must establish a coalition of the willing. Europe’s leading powers—France, Germany, and the United Kingdom—should join with an eastern European state, such as Finland or Poland, to engage with Putin. Their goal should be to stabilize relations with Moscow while continuing to support Kyiv. This will not end the Russian-European standoff, much less lead to friendship. But it could shore up European security and help prevent a wider war.
Europe’s frustration with the idea of talking to the Kremlin is rooted in experience. In the lead-up to Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, French President Emmanuel Macron and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz met directly with Putin to try to dissuade him from attacking. Putin, in turn, lied to their faces, promising that he would not invade even as he prepared to do so. Following this humiliation, Europe issued sweeping sanctions against Russia and joined the United States in offering extensive support to Ukraine. Most of the continent’s countries severed almost all their official lines of contact with the Kremlin.
Since then, Washington has handled most of the crisis diplomacy with Russia to prevent escalation. Whenever NATO countries stepped up support for Kyiv and pushed against the Kremlin’s ostensible redlines, Europe could be sure that a competent Biden administration official, such as former CIA director Bill Burns, would work the phones with Russian counterparts to establish guardrails and manage confrontation.
Then, U.S. President Donald Trump returned to the White House and filled his administration with neophytes. Steve Witkoff, a real estate developer with no government experience, was charged with speaking directly to Putin. Pete Hegseth, a Fox News host, was picked to lead the Pentagon. At the same time, the White House started threatening to pull back from NATO, criticizing European allies for neglecting defense spending, and even threatening to annex Greenland.
Russia and Europe are at risk of replaying the most dangerous parts of the Cold War.
Meanwhile, Europe’s security predicament vis-à-vis Moscow deteriorated. Putin has publicly said that Russia is confronting not only Ukraine but all of Europe, since the continent supplies Kyiv with weapons, intelligence, military training, technology, and general funding. The Kremlin plans to massively increase its military presence along the EU’s borders and has begun carrying out more hybrid attacks against EU........
