Extreme spring fire risk is rising across North America. Fire Weather Index % Change showing areas ... More with increased risk (red). Data from the CEMS Fire Weather Index. March 1 - June 1 average FWI compared to 1991-2020 baseline.

What happens when the models tell you the world is on fire, and the market listens?

In California’s most extreme wildfire zones, one in five homes has lost its insurance coverage since 2019 according to a Deep Sky Climate (my employer) wildfire research report. In some zip codes, premiums have skyrocketed over 40%. More than 150,000 households are now uninsured—not because they want to be, but because they’re uninsurable. And wildfire season has barely begun. Already more than 200 blazes rage across Canada, many are getting out of control. This isn’t just a climate story. It’s a markets story. A story of how the first real stress test of climate adaptation is happening—not in the halls of Congress or Parliament, but in your homeowner’s insurance renewal letter.

Insurers have one job: predict risk, price it, and spread it. And they’re good at it—until they’re not. When Los Angeles was engulfed in flames in January, insurance companies paid out more than

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