For CFOs, tariff is far from the most beautiful word in the dictionary. It’s the cause of the most concern for the future of their businesses. Nearly 40% said tariffs were their top concern as their outlook for the future deteriorated in the most recent CFO Survey, a collaboration of Duke University’s Fuqua School of Business and the Federal Reserve Banks of Richmond and Atlanta. Businesses—especially those that identified tariffs will impact them—said they expect to see increases in their costs, bump up their prices, and cut down on planned hiring and investments.

“Perhaps the most striking facet of the outlook for those that report tariffs and trade policy as a pressing concern is that their nominal sales revenue expectations fail to outpace their price growth projections, which means their real revenue growth is expected to contract in 2025,” Atlanta Fed economist Brent Meyer said in a written statement.

In the quarterly survey, CFOs are asked for their expectations of growth in revenue, price, unit cost and employment. Average revenue projections are down—from 6.8% in Q1 of 2025 to 5.4% in Q2—while price and unit cost increases have bumped up, both increasing more than 1%. Close to four out of five companies concerned with tariffs have postponed or scaled back capital expenditures. And most companies plan to pass the tariff increases on to their customers. Nearly 62% of those with tariff concerns are doing so, but more than a quarter of those without tariff concerns are also passing through new costs.

And while 68% of CFOs are optimistic about their own companies—a number only slightly changed compared to Q1—only about 61% are optimistic about the U.S. economy. They’ve projected a 22.7% probability of negative GDP growth over the next four quarters, with more than half revising their growth predictions for the next year downward—more than half expect growth ranging from zero to 2.4%.

All of this uncertainty does not lend itself to being the best backdrop for seeking financing, but some small and medium-sized companies will need more funds. Relatively high interest rates, inflation concerns and eligibility changes might make bank funding more difficult. I spoke with Brian Rosa, president of commercial finance for Mitsubishi HC Capital America, about the ideal times to consider alternative financing. An excerpt from our conversation appears later in this newsletter.

We’re taking a summer break and will not be publishing Forbes CFO next week. We’ll be back on Tuesday, July 15.

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President Trump displays the executive order on reciprocal tariffs in February as Commerce Secretary Howard Lutnick looks on.

Stock markets finally fully recovered last week from their early April “Liberation Day” drop, when President Donald Trump announced his slate of sweeping tariffs on other nations. The S&P 500 and Nasdaq hit their first highs in four months this week, setting a record level for both indexes on Friday. Leading analysts aren’t optimistic that the highs will keep coming, though. JPMorganChase top global strategist Dubravko Lakos-Bujas forecast the S&P will end the year 2% lower than Friday, citing the “lagged effects of new policies (i.e., tariffs, immigration, DOGE).”

Stocks have been able to rebound because, for the most part, the tariff threat has only been just that. While Trump........

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