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Forbes Daily: Conflict Expands In The Middle East—Shaking Markets

25 0
02.03.2026

The U.S. and Israel launched a wave of strikes against Iran over the weekend, killing Iran’s Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and sparking conflict that has since expanded in the region.

Three American soldiers were killed, and President Donald Trump said “there will likely be more” casualties before the operation ends, which could be at least “four to five weeks.” Early Monday, the Israeli military conducted strikes in Lebanon, targeting the Iran-backed militant group Hezbollah.

The war shook markets to start the week, with global crude oil prices surging while stock futures dipped.

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The war with Iran could send gas prices above a national average of $3 per gallon on Monday for the first time this year, according to Patrick De Haan, Head of Petroleum Analysis at GasBuddy. De Haan said over the weekend oil prices could rise 5 to 10%, as dozens of oil tankers reportedly diverted from the Strait of Hormuz—which about 20% of the world’s oil passes through—on Saturday.

Billionaire Larry Ellison and his son David would have unprecedented sway over American media if regulators approve Paramount’s $111 billion bid to acquire Warner Bros. Discovery. Here’s the problem: Paramount has just $3 billion in cash on its balance sheet. Larry Ellison’s trust has committed $45.7 billion in equity to help make up the rest—far more than he’s estimated to have in the bank, but he’ll likely use his key lever of borrowing against or selling Oracle stock.

Tether, the issuer of the world’s largest stablecoin, could be worth as much as $375 billion, recent secondary market transactions reveal—an amount that would rank its secretive owners among the richest in the world. For now, Forbes is valuing Tether at roughly $200 billion, which would value its CFO and largest shareholder Giancarlo Devasini at about $89 billion, while CEO Paolo Ardoino and former chief executive Jean-Louis van der Velde would end up with $38 billion fortunes.

Billionaire Jack Dorsey said his payments company Block would slash its workforce by nearly half as he expects AI to improve efficiency, leading shares to a nearly 17% gain Friday. The layoffs at Block, which owns online payment apps Cash App, Square, Afterpay and more, come as an MIT study found AI could replace 11.7% of the U.S. labor market.

OpenAI announced it had raised $110 billion thanks to funding from Amazon, Nvidia and SoftBank, giving the company a valuation of $730 billion. The AI giant said 900 million people use ChatGPT weekly, and it plans to expand its global reach through the partnerships.

The standoff between Anthropic and the Trump Administration intensified Friday, after President Donald Trump directed all federal agencies to stop using the AI firm’s technology, calling the company “woke.” Anthropic declined to give the Pentagon unrestricted access to its AI models, taking issue with the Department of Defense’s request to use its technology for mass surveillance and fully autonomous weapons.

Former President Bill Clinton told House members he “saw nothing” and “did nothing wrong” in testimony about his relationship with Jeffrey Epstein—the first time a former president has been compelled to testify before Congress. But lawmakers suggested that Clinton offered new insights about conversations with Trump about Epstein and raised “new questions” about the president’s relationship with the late financier.

Why Drug Kingpin El Mencho’s Billion Dollar Fortune Will Likely Remain Untouched By Authorities

Drug lord Nemesio “El Mencho” Oseguera, who was gunned down last month, was likely Mexico’s richest kingpin at the time of his death.

El Mencho founded the Jalisco New Generation Cartel (known as CJNG), one of Mexico’s two largest drug trafficking organizations. Mexican officials estimated in 2017 that CJNG enterprises held roughly $50 billion in assets. In 2019, Kyle Mori, an agent at the Drug Enforcement Agency who investigated him for years, told Univision that he believed the kingpin was worth between $500 million to $1 billion. In the last seven years CJNG has grown its share of Mexico’s illegal drug trafficking industry amid the continued splintering of the Sinaloa Cartel and weakening of regional players, while also pushing into other illicit cash streams.

Now that El Mencho is dead, CJNG’s business operations will likely pass into the hands of family members and close associates. Even if there’s a power vacuum, the enterprises will continue operating, churning out cash.

The fate of El Mencho’s personal estate is a trickier question. According to former U.S. agents and prosecutors with experience investigating narcos and seizing their assets, the kingpin likely held a massive investment portfolio—not unlike a legitimate billionaire’s—divided between cash-filled bank accounts, upscale cars, luxury properties, private planes, stocks, crypto, and even legitimate businesses set up to help launder money.

WHY IT MATTERS “El Mencho’s death pulls back the curtain on a largely hidden financial underworld where drug money flows into legitimate businesses, offshore accounts, real estate, and even stock markets,” says Forbes staff writer John Hyatt. “The sheer scale of his billion-dollar fortune illustrates how deeply narco wealth has infiltrated the global financial system, touching economies far beyond Mexico. Money laundering at this level distorts markets, corrupts institutions, and makes it even more difficult for law enforcement to dismantle criminal enterprises after their leaders are gone.”

MORE How Picasso, Van Gogh And Cézanne Helped Finance Epstein Client Leon Black’s Billionaire Lifestyle

Tax season is off to a slower start this year, though the average refund is higher than in 2025. Traffic to the IRS website also surged dramatically last month:

1.9%: The decline in individual income tax returns the IRS had received as of February 20 compared to the same time last year

$3,804: The average refund, an increase of 10.2%

46.3%: The jump in visits to IRS.gov

Being reliable and low-maintenance at work can actually cost you in the long run. Those who make fewer demands often receive less investment from their employer, which can foster disengagement over time. It’s critical to remain adaptable while still making your efforts visible, express interest in opportunities and be clear about capacity constraints.

A popular rock band demanded that ICE remove a social media video that uses one of its songs, saying it was used without its permission. What band is it?

Thanks for reading! This edition of Forbes Daily was edited by Sarah Whitmire, Chris Dobstaff and Caroline Howard.


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