Small businesses don’t fail because New York suddenly became more expensive. They fail because the communities around them have fewer people than they used to — and because too many places fight harder against new housing than they ever did against actual economic threats.

Upstate has been shrinking for decades. New York lost more than 100,000 residents in 2023 alone, the largest numeric decline of any state. In the Finger Lakes region, most counties have fewer residents today than they did in 2010. Yet every time a café closes or a hardware store boards up, the same old excuse shows up: “If it weren’t so expensive to do business in this state, they’d still be open!”

It feels like common sense. But it’s not actually true.

Costs matter, but they didn’t suddenly spike last week. What did change is population. And nothing determines the health of a local economy more than the number of people living in it.

Look at where small businesses struggle the most. It’s almost always in communities that have spent years blocking the very things that create customers. I’m talking about housing, density, and new development. Scroll through any local Facebook group and the pattern is immediate. People railing against apartments they’ve never seen........

© Finger Lakes Times