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Opinion: Heed the defence think tanks: Stop thinking tanks

Drones in their millions are taking over battlefields everywhere. Canada needs to partner with expert producers

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It was good to see Prime Minister Mark Carney boosting Canada’s Arctic military plans at that summit meeting in Norway this week. It was not so good to see the photographic backdrop of tanks and armoured personnel carriers. One of the first lessons of the Russia-Ukraine war is that a $10-million tank can be killed in minutes by a $500 drone.

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That simple equation, which has transformed battlefields from Ukraine to the Middle East, is now reshuffling the global defence economy. Heavy armour, once the defining symbol of military power, is increasingly vulnerable to swarms of inexpensive, networked drones capable of locating and striking targets within minutes.

Opinion: Heed the defence think tanks: Stop thinking tanks Back to video

The scale of destruction illustrates the shift. Open-source battlefield tracking suggests Russia has lost more than 4,000 tanks in the war with Ukraine, many destroyed or disabled by drones and precision strikes.

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Ukraine has become the laboratory of this transformation and is now exporting its expertise. The country delivered an estimated three million “first-person view” (FPV) drones to its armed forces last year, a 2.5-fold increase over 2024, while its total production capacity across all drone categories surpassed four million annually. By early 2026, capacity had expanded even further, and Ukraine’s defence industry says it can now manufacture more than eight million FPV drones per year. Cheap drones perform reconnaissance, guide artillery fire, strike vehicles and disrupt logistics.

In many sectors along the front, and now increasingly behind it, too, drones account for a large share of battlefield damage and casualties, fundamentally reshaping tactics and equipment on both sides.

But the transformation goes beyond factories. Ukraine has also begun to blur the line between soldiers and digital operators. Drone-pilot simulators and remote training systems — real-life war games — allow volunteers to practice targeting and navigation from home before operating live-fire systems at the front. These programs are part of Ukraine’s broader “Army of Drones” initiative, which combines procurement, training and battlefield deployment.

Artillery still dominates the battlefield, but ammunition shortages across NATO have exposed the limits of western defence supply chains. Analysts from major security think tanks warn that NATO countries are struggling to replenish artillery stockpiles depleted by support for Ukraine. The problem is apparent in Canada, as well. Domestic munitions production remains limited, with only a few facilities producing NATO-standard 155-millimetre artillery shells.

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Poland faces similar pressures despite rapidly increasing defence spending. To address the shortage, Warsaw is expanding ammunition manufacturing and positioning itself as a key defence production hub on NATO’s eastern flank.

Rather than attempt to rebuild every part of the defence supply chain domestically, Canada could pursue a pragmatic strategy built on co-operation with countries already expanding production. Poland is emerging as one of Europe’s most important defence manufacturing hubs. Canada, meanwhile, brings complementary strengths in aerospace engineering, artificial intelligence, advanced materials, robotics and simulation technologies.

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A practical co-operation model could involve Canadian companies supplying high-value technologies such as sensors, software, advanced materials and autonomous systems, while large-scale manufacturing expands in Poland’s growing defence industrial base. Ukraine would provide a third pillar: real-world battlefield testing and rapid innovation cycles. Such partnerships would strengthen NATO supply chains while opening new export markets for Canadian firms in what is rapidly becoming one of the fastest-growing sectors of the global economy.

But while the battlefield is evolving every six months, Canada’s procurement system still moves in 15-year cycles. That gap is no longer simply a bureaucratic problem. In the drone era, military strength no longer belongs to the country with the heaviest armour. It belongs to the country that can adapt fastest. Fifteen years doesn’t hack it.

Katarzyna (Kasha) Piquette, founder of Canadian Energy Ventures, works on strategic partnerships across Canada, Poland and Ukraine.

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