When the Taliban returned to power in August 2021, they promised something that Afghanistan’s people and neighbors had long desired: security. After two decades of war, foreign intervention and insurgency, the movement presented itself not merely as a victor but as a force capable of restoring stability to a fractured country. Nearly five years later, however, Afghanistan remains at the center of a growing regional security dilemma whose consequences extend far beyond its borders.

The challenge is not that Afghanistan has become a failed state in the conventional sense. The Taliban have consolidated control over much of the country, eliminated many rival power centers and established a degree of political authority unprecedented since their return. The problem is that governance and territorial control have not translated into the level of security that neighboring states expected. Militant organizations continue to operate within and around Afghanistan, creating persistent concerns for countries across South and Central Asia.

As confidence in the Taliban’s ability—or willingness—to neutralize these threats remains uncertain, a quiet but significant geopolitical shift is taking place. Regional powers are increasingly moving beyond reliance on Kabul and constructing their own overlapping security arrangements. In doing so, they are laying the foundations of a new Eurasian security architecture.

For much of the post-2001 period, Afghanistan’s security was largely viewed through a Western lens. The United States and its NATO allies were the principal actors shaping counterterrorism operations, military assistance and political negotiations. Regional states often played secondary roles, adapting their policies to decisions made in........

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