Donald Trump today, in a post on his social media platform Truth Social, stated that his goal for the current war with Iran is unconditional surrender. Specifically, he wrote: “There will be no deal with Iran except UNCONDITIONAL SURRENDER!” 

Moreover, Trump specified that the US will have final say on “the selection of a GREAT & ACCEPTABLE Leader(s).”

In stating all this, however, Trump is essentially announcing that the US will be at war for an extended period. 

Historians have long noted that demands for unconditional surrender have worked to prolong conflicts rather than shorten them, leading to needless death on both sides. After all, Trump is essentially saying that the Iranians should put themselves in a position of accepting whatever terms the United States seeks to unilaterally impose, including the total dissolution of the Iranian state, plus sanctions, punishments, occupations and other humiliations. What government would accede to this? Very few would, which is why only very weak, small, and relatively unarmed regimes can be forced into accepting unconditional surrender after anything less than a protracted war. 

Iran, however, is not weak, small, or relatively unarmed. And, geography is in its favor. Indeed, in an interview earlier this week, international-relations expert John Mearsheimer spoke at length about the likely outcomes of the US. “It is almost impossible for me to see how Israel and the US win this war,” Mearsheimer concluded, largely because the prospects for regime change—i.e., unconditional surrender—are extremely small. Moreover, in order to get the kind of regime change that Trump is talking about, any new regime would also have to be permanently aligned with the United States. That is, a new regime isn’t enough. It has to also be a regime that takes orders from the United States. Given the reality on the ground in Iran, Mearsheimer continued, any new regime will be hostile to the United States. This fact is hinted at in the fact the the new Ayatollah, who has now replaced the 86-year old Ayatollah Khamenei, is far more radical than the old one. For example, the older Ayatollah, assassinated........

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