All the living hostages held by Hamas returned to Israel this week. The 20 men have been reunited with their ecstatic families. It’s extraordinary that they are still alive, more than two years after Hamas and its allies seized them along with around 230 others after the attacks of October 7. They survived two years of captivity, of war, of privation. They survived when other hostages died during Israeli raids. They survived when the Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) killed at least 67,000 Palestinians—more than 80 percent of them civilians, according to leaked Israeli sources—during two years of aerial and ground assaults.

The survival of these 20 Israelis is a testament to their resilience, yes, but more so to their value. The hostages were the only asset that Hamas could trade for the release of Palestinian prisoners, a ceasefire to end the war, and a deal to guarantee a Palestinian state.

Israel released 2,000 Palestinian prisoners in exchange for these 20 men and more than 20 dead hostages. It has stopped bombing Gaza (though it is still killing people on the ground for alleged ceasefire violations). The IDF has withdrawn from some of the land it has occupied in Gaza. Israel is still restricting aid to the region to punish Gazans because Hamas has not returned all the bodies of the dead hostages (which may be held by other factions or lie inaccessible under the rubble).

Hamas is left with almost nothing. True, it too has survived, even though Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu had promised not to end the war without extinguishing Hamas. But without the hostages as collateral, the organization has no leverage to force the IDF to relinquish further territory or to guarantee that the Israeli government won’t resume bombing Gaza. As for Palestinian statehood, it remains as elusive after this hostage exchange as it has been for years.

Palestinians are no closer to determining their own future. Gaza lies in ruins. The West Bank is being gobbled up by Israeli settlers. Whether it’s the Israeli government, an international peacekeeping force, or a post-conflict reconstruction authority for Gaza chaired (grotesquely) by Donald Trump, the fate of Palestine still rests in the hands of outsiders.

Although Trump, in his triumphalist address to the Israeli Knesset, took the peace deal for granted—and spoke grandly of a peace........

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