US Withdrawal Risks Destabilization: The United States’ decision to end financial and military support for the UN Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS)—while opposing replacement funding—threatens the African Union Support and Stabilisation Mission in Somalia (AUSSOM) and could create a security vacuum before Somali institutions are ready to fill it.

Prolonged Equilibrium of Instability: Decades of international intervention have prevented both the complete collapse of the Somali state and a decisive resolution of the conflict, producing a “controlled instability” in which no side fully wins or loses; abrupt withdrawal risks tipping this balance toward renewed violence and stronger insurgent narratives.

Broader Geopolitical Consequences: Because Somalia sits at a critical strategic location (Gulf of Aden/Red Sea) and is already a theatre for competing regional and global powers, a reduced US/UN role may not produce self-reliance but instead intensify proxy competition and leave the country more vulnerable.

For more than three decades, Somalia has been trapped in a cycle of conflict, foreign intervention, fragile state-building and international dependency. Since the collapse of the Somali state in 1991, successive international missions have sought to restore stability through military intervention, humanitarian assistance and institution-building. While these efforts have prevented the complete collapse of the Somali state, they have not delivered lasting peace. Instead, Somalia has remained suspended between war and stability, strong enough to survive as a nation, but too weak to stand on its own as a state.

The United States’ recent decision to withdraw financial and military support for the United Nations Support Office in Somalia (UNSOS), while signalling that it will oppose efforts by other countries to replace the funding, may prove to be one of the most consequential policy shifts in the Horn of Africa in decades. The decision threatens the African Union Support........

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