The Burmese military are planning new elections at the end of 2025. They will clearly be a total sham and mostly rejected internationally and domestically. The Burmese military know this but are calculating that it doesn’t matter. 

They want to repeat what happened with the 2010 elections.  Those elections were also rejected, but the international community went on to drop sanctions and support the regime it had previously described as illegitimate.

The Burmese military likes elections almost as much as it likes coups. For the Burmese military, elections are an opportunity to rebrand, renew, and try to convince the people of Burma and international community that reforms are finally happening (again).

Whether wilfully ignoring reality for the sake of expediency (or investment opportunities), or genuinely falling for Burmese military lies and propaganda, the international community goes along with it. Phrases like “we have to wait and see,” “we have to reward positive steps,” “prospects for peace,” “there is a window of opportunity,” get dusted off and recycled again.

The Burmese military is currently fighting for its very survival. In early 2025, the BBC estimated that the military is only in full control of around 20% of the country. Its latest administrative brand name, the State Administrative Council (SAC), has failed to gain the international legitimacy it craves.

At the same time as being under threat domestically, the limited international sanctions which have been introduced so far are clearly hurting the military. Military leader Min Aung Hlaing isn’t complaining about sanctions because he is concerned about the people of Burma being impacted. The sanctions so far are highly targeted at sources of revenue and equipment to the Burmese military. He is complaining because sanctions are making his life harder.

The Burmese military need a gamechanger. A reset. While it initially seemed that the military were being pushed into holding elections by China, the Burmese military are now deploying significant physical and propaganda resources into preparing to hold the election during December 2025 and perhaps into January 2026.

We only have the word of the Burmese military that elections will happen, and they lie constantly, so it is perfectly possible they might not happen at all. The 2010 elections and subsequent military-backed government required a generational shift within the military to give the impression of change, with the then military leader, Than Shwe, stepping down. Will the current military leader, Min Aung Hlaing, be willing to step aside? He shows no indication of doing so.

The ‘election’ will be deeply flawed. It will be unfair and illegitimate. Apart from the usual suspects like Russia, China, India and a handful of others, most western countries and many others will reject the elections as not being credible, and whatever government that follows as not being legitimate.

Following the election, the new government, whatever form it takes, will be under the control of the Burmese military and will have one main objective: Burmese military control over Burma. They will do this by returning to the 2008 Constitution.

The Burmese military are already promoting the military-drafted undemocratic 2008 Constitution as the post-election political system........

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