The global economy is once again passing through a phase of deep uncertainty. With no clear milestone in sight and shifting announcements from the warring sides on even a temporary halt, the impact is being felt far beyond the immediate zone of conflict. For India, a large and globally linked economy, the consequences are both immediate and likely to persist. The recent reduction in India’s growth forecast by Goldman Sachs  from 7 percent to 5.9 percent reflects this emerging reality. It is not an overreaction, but a recognition that war affects growth through higher oil prices, weaker trade, and lower investor confidence. Other global agencies broadly echo this concern: earlier projections had placed India’s growth above 6 percent under stable conditions, but the present conflict is now widely seen as a downside risk to growth, trade flows and currency stability.

At home, Prime Minister Narendra Modi has conveyed both assurance and caution. While expressing confidence that India can overcome the crisis, he has also advised citizens to be prepared for some hard measures in the overall interest of the nation. Significantly, he has drawn a parallel with the recent experience of the COVID-19 pandemic, reminding the country that India has faced such disruptions before and responded with unity and resilience.

The comparison is not without merit. The pandemic was perhaps the first major global economic shock of this century where both lives and livelihoods were at stake simultaneously. Economic activity came to a near standstill, supply chains were broken, and millions of........

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