Six months before one of Brazil’s most consequential elections, current prospects suggest a landscape stalled in time. Though the country has a political system that is deeply fragmented into dozens of parties, polls have indicated that the presidential election of October 2026 is likely to be a two-man race reiterating the deep polarization that has been defining the last decade. Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva will run for a fourth presidential term, while most right-wing opposition parties will be represented by Flavio Bolsonaro, former president Jair Bolsonaro’s oldest son. One of the most surprising elements of this scenario is that despite the mismanagement of the Covid pandemic under his father’s presidential term (2019-2023), Flavio Bolsonaro, an unremarkable Senator from the state of Rio de Janeiro, is off to a good start. His numbers reflect the fact that Bolsonarism is the main platform for voicing positions held by the extreme right in the country. Bolsonaro’s supporters hold the largest base in Brazil’s both houses of parliament, with sustained influence and support across various segments of the country’s political, economic and ideological establishments. This includes broad sectors of the federal and state judiciaries and federal and state public ministries; especially state and local political bodies, such as state assemblies and city councils, as well as the most influential media conglomerates, and a vast array of professional and business associations.  

Confirming the strength of the extreme-right across the Brazilian society, since his return to the presidency in January 2023, after a close race against Jair Bolsonaro – who likely only lost due to his consistently chaotic handling of the Covid crisis – Lula has not been able to obtain approval ratings above 50 percent. This measure provides an accurate snapshot of Brazil’s deeply divided electorate, which expresses profound societal divisions across the........

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