The year 2026 has brought a brutal reminder that food security is intricately related to energy, shipping routes, industrial capacity and geopolitical exposure. The conflict in the Middle East has disrupted energy markets and increased concern about the Strait of Hormuz, a route that matters not only for oil and gas, but ammonia, urea and phosphate-based fertilizers. The International Fertilizer Association warned that Iran, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Bahrain together accounted in 2024 for 23 percent of global ammonia trade, 34 percent of global urea trade and 18 percent of global ammoniated phosphate trade. The implications are serious for Sub-Saharan Africa. The region imports approximately 90 percent of its mineral fertilizers, leaving farmers exposed to exchange-rate pressure, shipping disruption, supplier concentration and sudden global price movements. The World Bank warned that fertilizer prices could rise sharply in 2026, with a projected 31 percent increase driven largely by urea costs. This is not simply a commercial challenge. It is a food security and sovereignty problem in which market access, logistics and risk increasingly shape national policy space.

Fertilizer sovereignty should not mean autarky or the rejection of global trade. It should mean reducing unnecessary vulnerability. Africa needs a more resilient system that combines imported fertilizers where needed with local blending, better soil testing, organic amendments, legumes, composting, biofertilizers, regional logistics and, over the longer term, low-carbon ammonia production. The aim is not to abandon nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium (NPK), but to use them more intelligently and depend less blindly on distant supply chains with rules, prices and risks largely set elsewhere. Most synthetic nitrogen is produced through the Haber-Bosch process and depends heavily on natural gas. When energy markets tighten, nitrogen fertilizer becomes more expensive. When shipping routes are threatened, availability becomes less predictable.

African farmers face a dangerous combination of higher prices, uncertain delivery and limited public capacity to cushion the shock. The issue for African farmers, already operating on narrow margins, is not only whether fertilizer is available on the global market, but whether it can reach the farm gate at prices that make agronomic and commercial sense. Recent reporting cites Yara, on of the world’s largest fertilizer companies, warning that urea prices had risen by roughly 60 to 70 percent amid the Middle East crisis, with African importers among the most exposed. In countries where fertilizer use is already low, further price increases can quickly translate into lower application, weaker yields and greater food import dependence. This dependency is unsustainable. The African Union’s 2024 Africa Fertilizer and Soil Health Action Plan recognised the continent needs an integrated soil........

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