*Originally published in 2025 and preserved as part of our archive project.Get E-International Relations delivered directly to your inbox, free of charge. As you sign up, consider becoming a paid subscriber to support our work.

Syria’s future remains one of the most pressing questions in the Middle East. More than a decade of civil war, foreign intervention, and internal divisions have left the country in ruins. The fall of the Assad regime in December 2024 – long imagined as the beginning of the country’s rebirth – has not resolved Syria’s problems. Instead, it has multiplied them. Today, Syria is fragmented internally and increasingly a battleground for competing regional powers. Following Assad’s fall, Russia’s involvement diminished, while other actors intensified their roles. Israel has expanded its strikes deep inside Syrian territory, and Türkiye continues to assert itself in the north. Both consider Syria central to their national security, but their goals diverge: Israel favors a weak and divided Syria incapable of threatening it, while Türkiye insists on preserving Syria’s territorial integrity under a central authority in Damascus to block the rise of a Kurdish autonomous region that might inspire separatism within its own borders. 

Behind these geopolitical rivalries lies a deeper challenge: building a political order that can accommodate Syria’s diversity. The country is home to Arabs, Kurds, Turkomans, Druze, Alawites, and other groups, each with distinct histories and aspirations. Israel has at times tried to leverage minority discontent by offering support to groups like the Kurds and Druze. Türkiye, on the other hand, has prioritized strengthening the central government while downplaying minority rights. Neither approach addresses the real question: how can Syria be reconstituted as a state where all communities feel secure and represented? 

The idea of restoring Syria as a powerful, centralized, Arab-dominated state under a strong constitution is unrealistic. At least three core reasons illustrate why. First, minority groups such as the Kurds have long pursued autonomy or independence . Backed by shifting international support – particularly from the United States during the Obama years and thereafter – Syrian Kurds carved out a foothold in the northeast. They will not........

© E-International