IN a knee-jerk reaction to the suspension of the Indus Waters Treaty, the campaign for new dams has been resuscitated. The prime minister, too, has emphasised the need for new dams.

However, an essential condition for dam construction is surplus water. Contrary to claims that water is wasted as it enters the sea, flows in the Indus river system are plummeting. Flow patterns during 1976-2000 and 2001-2024 exhibit contradictory patterns in the Indus basin rivers. A look at the flow pattern at four critical points sheds more light. Pakistan’s river network is divided into two broad categories of the eastern rivers (Sutlej and Ravi) and the western rivers (Indus, Jhelum and Chenab), under Indian and Pakistani control respectively. The eastern rivers debouch into the Indus below the Panjnad barrage. An analysis of 50 years of river flows at these locations reveal that the waters in the basin are decreasing.

Climate change and transboundary diversions have affected river flows. The average inflows of western rivers at their rim stations were 135.6 MAF during 1976-98. However, average inflows by 1999-2022 had decreased to 120.8 MAF. Similarly, the average annual flows in the eastern rivers have reduced from 9.35 MAF........

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