WHEN leaders gather in Antalya for COP31, the formal agenda will be familiar: emissions, adaptation, climate finance, technology, and implementation. Yet the significance of this conference may lie beyond any individual negotiating text. COP31 arrives 10 years after the Paris Agr­eement, at a moment when the world that produced Paris has changed profoundly.

In 2015, multilateralism still carried considerable confidence. Globalisation appeared broadly irreversible; economic interdependence was viewed more as a stabilising force than a strategic vulnerability; technological change was promising transformation but had not yet become a source of geopolitical rivalry. Today, wars, strategic competition, fractured supply chains, industrial policy and technological disruption have altered the international landscape. Climate change itself has become more immediate, while the clean-energy transition has become an arena of economic and strategic competition.

Paris succeeded in establishing a common framework in which every country accepted responsibility for contributing to the climate response, while recognising differences in circumstances and capabilities. The question before Antalya will, therefore, not be whether to move beyond........

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