Whether India will heed the counsel of global powers, including the United States, and how it will interpret Pakistan’s warning of a “swift, resolute and notch-up” response, as per the army chief, to any act of aggression remains unclear. Consequently, the risk of military escalation cannot be entirely ruled out despite intense diplomatic efforts aimed at averting a clash between the two nuclear-armed neighbours.

For Pakistan’s economic managers, this development presents a new and highly complex challenge. Should New Delhi move to divert water flows designated for Pakistan, managing an economy already strained by water shortages would become immensely difficult. Additionally, such a move would undermine the broader international diplomatic initiative aimed at preventing hostilities between the two countries.

The year 2025 is proving to be fraught with challenges on multiple fronts, and the issue of water availability has rightly emerged at the top of the national agenda. Fortunately, the Council of Common Interests (CCI) has eased apprehensions regarding any potential move to deprive Sindh of its rightful share of water, for now.

A swift and equitable resolution of water-related disputes along with accelerating export growth is necessary to navigate the shifting contours of South Asian........

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