This year, Pakistan’s food security landscape is shaped by two critical factors: a notable shortfall in wheat production and the withdrawal of both federal and provincial governments from wheat procurement. Previously, 5 to 7 million tonnes (MT) of wheat were procured annually to maintain strategic reserves for food security emergencies and to serve as buffer stocks, which were released to flour mills as needed to stabilise market prices.

Wheat in Pakistan is primarily used for food, feed, and seed. In 2024–25, Pakistan harvested only 28.98 MT of wheat from 22.5 million acres — well below the 33.58 MT target set for 2024–25 and last year’s production of 31.8 MT. This year’s production falls short of meeting even the basic food requirements of the country’s 255m people, based on an annual per capita consumption of 115 kilograms (Household Income and Expenditure Survey, 2018–19).

Additionally, 1.0 to 1.2 MT of wheat are needed as seed for the next crop. Apart from these core needs, wheat is also used in livestock and poultry feed, often as a cost-effective substitute for maize. Furthermore, Pakistan’s wheat supplies support a significant portion of Afghanistan’s population — an element typically factored into national demand estimates.

When all demands — human consumption, seed requirements, feed use, and regional needs — are weighed against this year’s production and the carryover stock of around 5 MT held by federal and provincial governments, the available stock appears barely sufficient to meet........

© Dawn Business