Has Pakistan’s agriculture sector — particularly its two major crops, wheat and cotton — attained a level of crop yields that allows it to compete globally without government subsidies or market intervention? The government seems to believe so, as reflected in its recent policies. But is this confidence well-founded, or a miscalculation that could jeopardise the backbone of the nation’s economy?

For decades, policymakers have placed unwavering emphasis on wheat and cotton as cornerstones of national food security and economic growth, respectively. This approach paid dividends: Pakistan achieved near self-sufficiency in wheat (even generated an export surplus in some years), despite rapid population growth. Likewise, Pakistan remained a net exporter of cotton after meeting the demand of its vast textile and garment industry — the country’s largest export contributor.

However, Pakistan’s agriculture sector has failed to keep pace with global advancements in crop yields. Per-acre yields of most crops remained significantly lower than those of regional and international competitors due to deep-rooted structural deficiencies, including inadequate investment in research and development, an ineffective agricultural extension system, limited availability of high-yielding seeds, and weak pesticide and seed regulations. Adding to these woes, in recent years, climate change has exacerbated crop production risks — particularly of cotton — leading to erratic yields.

Meanwhile, the government has been under mounting pressure from international lenders to improve its fiscal discipline........

© Dawn Business