• UK-based firm projects 3pc fall in national gas demand during 2025-40
• Urges reforms as circular debt rises due to price distortions, market imbalances

ISLAMABAD: Despite population projections of 325 million over the next 15 years and rising overall energy needs, Pakistan may have to put off gas import options owing to declining demand until 2040 and the surplus of liquefied natural gas (LNG) going beyond 2031.

Sources told Dawn that an “all-of-government” approach is under consideration to slow-pedal both pipeline imports — from Turkmenistan and Iran — and readjust LNG supply schedules, while pushing through structural reforms to underpin sustainable growth.

The rethink follows a study by UK-based consultancy Wood Mackenzie, which projects a three per cent decline in national gas demand during 2025-40 under a business-as-usual scenario, even as total gas availability — including take-or-pay LNG — rises into the early 2030s.

The total gas supply, including that of LNG contracts, has been estimated to peak at five billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) by 2031 from around 3.8bcfd today, up 31pc.

Demand, on the other hand, is projected to decline by 3.8pc by 2031 and 2.5pc in the subsequent nine years, with a cumulative average of 3pc between now and 2040. This takes into account more than a 12pc fall in the power sector’s gas........

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