Energy prices expected to surge 24pc, reaching highest level since 2022 Russia-Ukraine war: World Bank assessment

ISLAMABAD: Energy prices are projected to surge by 24 per cent this year to their highest level since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, as the war in the Middle East sends a severe shock through global commodity markets, the World Bank Group said in its latest Commodity Markets Outlook.

Overall, commodity prices are forecast to rise 16pc in 2026, driven by soaring energy and fertiliser prices and record-high prices for several key metals, according to the assessment.

“The shock will have serious implications for job creation and development,” the analysis indicates.

The World Bank noted: “Attacks on energy infrastructure and shipping disruptions in the Strait of Hormuz, which handles about 35pc of global seaborne crude oil trade, have triggered the largest oil supply shock on record, with an initial reduction in global oil supply of about 10 million barrels per day.

“Even after moderating from their recent peak, Brent oil prices remained more than 50pc higher in mid-April than they were at the start of the year. Brent oil is forecast to average $86 a barrel in 2026, up sharply from $69 a barrel in 2025.”

These forecasts assume that the most acute disruptions end in May and that shipping through the Strait of Hormuz gradually returns to pre-war levels by late 2026, the analysis concludes.

On this, the group’s Chief Economist  Indermit Gill said, “The war is hitting the global economy in cumulative waves: first through higher energy prices, then higher food prices, and finally, higher inflation, which will push up interest rates and make debt even more expensive.

“The poorest people, who spend the highest share of their income on food and fuels, will be hit the hardest, as will developing economies already struggling under heavy debt burdens. All of this is a reminder of a stark truth: war is development in reverse.”

Fertiliser prices are projected to increase by 31pc in 2026, driven by a 60pc jump in urea prices, according to the........

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