Just recalling Donald Trump’s lament over America’s withdrawal from Afghanistan, which he described as “the greatest humiliation in the history of our country”; and, wondering what verdict history may yet deliver on its most recent adventure.

Also, can’t help asking myself a larger question: why does this keep happening to a superpower, possessing unmatched military, economic, technological and intelligence capabilities?

And, why do seemingly invincible powers repeatedly stumble in distant lands?

All I can think of is that the first and perhaps the most enduring weakness of the United States is its strategic overconfidence, often bordering on arrogance. Power can create the illusion of omniscience. It tempts policymakers into believing that superior resources automatically translate into superior understanding.

Yet arrogance is a malady that clouds judgment, discourages self-doubt, and blinds decision-makers to inconvenient realities. It encourages leaders to hear what confirms their assumptions rather than what challenges them. History repeatedly demonstrates that ambitious nations are rarely defeated by a lack of power. More often, they are defeated by a failure to understand the societies they seek to influence, reform, transform, intimidate, or defeat.

History’s graveyard is crowded not with weak empires, but with powerful ones that mistook knowledge for wisdom.

History’s graveyard is crowded not with weak empires, but with powerful ones that mistook knowledge for wisdom.

The paradox of American power is that it can deploy carrier strike groups across oceans, topple governments, impose sanctions, dominate global finance, and project military force to every corner of the world. Yet, time and again, it struggles to comprehend the social, cultural, religious and historical realities of the countries it seeks to reshape.

One recurring weakness, particularly evident in the cases of Afghanistan and Iran, is Washington’s tendency to formulate policies on the basis of feedback from expatriate elites and highly westernized diasporas. Many such........

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