When tensions rise in the Middle East, markets instinctively watch oil. But the greater strategic risk exposed by the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not energy — it is food.

A narrow maritime corridor has become one of the world’s most critical arteries not only for energy, but for agriculture itself. Roughly one-third of the global nitrogen fertilizer supply and nearly half of the sulfur essential for phosphate fertilizers transit this chokepoint. Fertilizers are responsible for approximately half of global crop yields. Disrupt that flow, and you do not just move markets — you threaten the world’s ability to feed itself.

For decades, globalization optimized agricultural production for efficiency. Supply chains stretched across continents, and inventories shrank in favor of speed. This system delivered abundance at scale — but it was designed for a world of stability.

Today's geopolitical volatility endangers stability across the world

Today’s geopolitical landscape is defined by volatility rather than predictability. Supply chains that once seemed resilient now reveal hidden fragilities, and industries long considered insulated from global tensions are finding themselves exposed. Agriculture, which depends on steady access to essential inputs, is........

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