When tensions rise in the Middle East, markets instinctively watch oil. But the greater strategic risk exposed by the ongoing disruption of the Strait of Hormuz is not energy — it is food.

A narrow maritime corridor has become one of the world’s most critical arteries not only for energy, but for agriculture itself. Roughly one-third of the global nitrogen fertilizer supply and nearly half of the sulfur essential for phosphate fertilizers transit this chokepoint. Fertilizers are responsible for approximately half of global crop yields. Disrupt that flow, and you do not just move markets — you threaten the world’s ability to feed itself.

For decades, globalization optimized agricultural production for efficiency. Supply chains stretched across continents, and inventories shrank in favor of speed. This system delivered abundance at scale — but it was designed for a world of stability.

Today's geopolitical volatility endangers stability across the world

Today’s geopolitical landscape is defined by volatility rather than predictability. Supply chains that once seemed resilient now reveal hidden fragilities, and industries long considered insulated from global tensions are finding themselves exposed. Agriculture, which depends on steady access to essential inputs, is particularly vulnerable. The Hormuz disruption is not an isolated event but part of a broader pattern in which regional conflicts quickly ripple across global systems.

Geopolitical events have already demonstrated how fragile the system can be. The Russia-Ukraine war, for example, triggered a surge in fertilizer and grain prices, sending shockwaves through global food markets and exposing how dependent the world has become on a small number of producers and critical supply routes.

One way to confront these vulnerabilities is through a “glocal” model — an approach that balances the advantages of global trade with the necessity of local capability. This is not a retreat from globalization; it is its evolution. Companies that operate with this mindset already hold a strategic advantage, because they can maintain continuity even when global chokepoints are disrupted.

Countries across Asia, Africa and Europe are already experiencing delays in fertilizer shipments due to regional instability. For import-dependent economies, these disruptions are more than logistical challenges. They are early warnings of a deeper crisis — one that highlights how even the world’s most productive agricultural regions can be exposed when essential inputs rely on distant and fragile routes.

Brazil illustrates this dynamic clearly. As a global agricultural powerhouse, it feeds hundreds of millions beyond its borders. Yet it imports nearly all of its potash and roughly 85% of its crop nutrients. A disruption in Hormuz is not just a regional issue for Brazil — it is a direct threat to its economic stability and food system. The lesson is not about Brazil alone, but about the structural vulnerability shared by many nations whose agricultural strength depends on inputs they do not control.

We need more resilience in our economies

Resilience must be built into the system. This means investing in domestic production where feasible, diversifying supply sources and advancing technologies that enable more efficient use of inputs. It also means recognizing that industrial capabilities once viewed as purely commercial — such as fertilizer production — are, in fact, pillars of national resilience.

Here, countries with existing expertise have both an advantage and a responsibility. Israel, for example, has developed advanced capabilities in specialty fertilizers, precision agriculture and agri‑tech innovation. These technologies enable farmers to grow more with less — optimizing nutrient use, reducing environmental impact and increasing yields even under constrained conditions. Such capabilities are not only economic strengths; they are strategic assets that enhance operational independence and contribute to global stability.

They also create new forms of diplomacy. When nations depend on reliable, diversified sources of agricultural inputs, trade relationships become stabilizing forces. Fertilizer exports are no longer just commercial flows; they are instruments of strategic alignment.

Industrial sectors such as fertilizer production also anchor regional economies, particularly in peripheral areas where alternatives are limited. Stable employment in these sectors strengthens not only economic output, but social cohesion and national resilience — especially in times of uncertainty.

As flows through Hormuz are disrupted, the consequences are not confined to energy markets. They are already being felt in supply chains and will soon be reflected in harvests, food prices and ultimately on dinner tables around the world.

The time to rebalance is now — before the next crisis turns vulnerability into reality.

Elad Aharonson is the president and CEO of ICL Group, the leading global specialty minerals solution company, with a diversified portfolio spanning agriculture, food and engineered materials that serve essential industries worldwide.

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