With less than two weeks to go, it’s clear enough Andrew Cuomo remains the favorite to win the Democratic primary for mayor. What’s far less obvious is how large a lead Cuomo holds — and if he’ll actually coast to victory on June 24.

Divergent polls tell divergent stories. One affiliated with Team Cuomo shows the ex-governor beating Zohran Mamdani, the democratic-socialist state assemblyman, by 12 points in a ranked-choice voting simulation. Another poll, commissioned by Data for Progress on behalf of a Mamdani super-PAC, has Cuomo winning by just two points — within the poll’s margin of error. In 2021, the progressive Data for Progress was one of the most accurate pollsters, though any poll that’s not fully independent should be treated skeptically. The same holds for polls emanating from Cuomo’s orbit.

But the real story is a tightening race — and one, if it narrows even further, that all but erases the best-case scenario for Cuomo’s comeback. (Disclosure: In 2018, when I ran for office, Mamdani was my campaign manager.) If polling trends are to be believed — and the anecdotal evidence of Mamdani’s surge translates to enough raw votes — Cuomo is not going to demolish Mamdani and the rest of the Democrats. The days of the 25-point polling leads are gone. If, for example, Cuomo’s own polling is accurate, this will have meant a former governor who ruled New York State with an iron fist for nearly 11 years will........

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