Here we go again. At midnight, the U.S. government will run out of funding and be forced to shut down after Donald Trump and congressional Republicans were unable to cut a deal with Democrats. Despite some very high stakes for both parties and the country, it’s not clear how long the shutdown will last. Below are the latest updates, analysis, and commentary from our team and beyond.

Nobody knows, but it could be a while, as Semafor points out:

Congress is about to experience a painful reality for the first time in six years: Getting into shutdowns are easy. Getting out of them is a lot harder.

The impending government shutdown is injecting new uncertainty into an already chaotic Washington. No one knows when it’s going to end, and neither party took the obvious exit paths they were offered over the last few weeks. …

We see two ways this thing ends: Either Democrats cannot sustain their position, or Republicans throw them a bone — a guarantee, even — on the health care subsidies.

It’s not clear exactly what it would take to move Democrats: House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries says that any concession must be written into legislation, but Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer is less explicit.

Both have suggested they still see space to nudge Trump into an agreement that the rest of the GOP dislikes.

He blames Democrats and tells federal agencies to “execute their plans for an orderly shutdown”:

pic.twitter.com/tVu5Yqrtel

As there is now no chance of avoiding it, the federal government will shut down starting at 12:01 a.m. Wednesday. There won’t be another vote in the Senate until late Wednesday morning.

There are now 41 Democrats who have voted against the seven-week stopgap, which means the government is still on track for a shutdown.

Drama: A group of Senate Ds have not yet voted and seem to be having intense conversations, including Gallego, Shaheen, Gillibrand, Coons

The short-term funding bill proposed by Democrats failed along party lines (47-53), and now the Senate is voting on the House GOP’s continuing resolution, which the House recently passed and would extend funding of the government until November 21.

It needs 60 votes to pass, and three senators have crossed the aisle (Fetterman, Masto, and King) to vote in favor, as has Murkowski, who voted against the CR last time around.

Punchbowl’s Jake Sherman passes along some new details about the president’s meeting with Schumer and Jeffries on Monday:

Trump gave Schumer and House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries “Trump 2028” hats. The two men did not take the caps. Jeffries then turned to Vice President JD Vance and asked how he feels about that — a reference to Vance’s possible presidential ambitions. Vance said, “No comment,” and the room erupted in laughter.

Per NOTUS’s Daniella Diaz:

Happening now: The Senate is voting now on the first of two bills that would fund the government. The first bill is the Democratic proposal that contains healthcare provisions Republicans have repeatedly said they would not support. The second is the House GOP CR that majority of Democrats said they don’t plan to support.

New — Just saw Dem Rep. Madeleine Dean confront Speaker Johnson off House floor over CR, health care, recessing chamber, Trump’s speech.

And on Trump’s AI video, Johnson says “it wasn't my style."
 
Dean: “Not your style? It's disgraceful. It's racist. You should call it out.” pic.twitter.com/Ykw8Mx2r6y

On tap at Butterworth’s:

Capitol Hill MAGA hangout Butterworth’s will rollout a special menu if/when the government enters a shutdown, featuring a $5 Welsh rarebit, $6 mini Guinness, and $10 cocktails called the "Furlough-rita" and “Continuing Rye-solution.”

KFF warns that ACA marketplace premiums will more than double if enhanced premium tax credits are allowed to expire:

Since the introduction of the enhanced premium tax credits, enrollment in the Marketplace has more than doubled from about 11 to over 24 million people, the vast majority of whom receive an enhanced premium tax credit. If enhanced tax credits expire, many Marketplace enrollees will continue to qualify for a smaller tax credit, while others will lose eligibility altogether and be hit by a “double whammy” of losing their entire tax credit and being on the hook for rising premiums.

Since 2014, the ACA has capped how much subsidized enrollees pay for their health insurance premiums at a certain percent of their income, on a sliding scale, with the federal government covering the remainder in the form of a tax credit. Enhanced tax credits work by further lowering the share of income ACA Marketplace enrollees pay for a plan. For example, with the enhanced tax credits in place, an individual making $28,000 will pay no more than around 1% ($325) of their annual income towards a benchmark plan. If the enhanced tax credits expire, this same individual would pay nearly 6% of their income ($1,562 annually) towards a benchmark plan in 2026. In other words, if the enhanced tax credits expire, this individual would experience an increase of $1,238 in their annual premium payments net of the tax credit.

According to a memo from the Department of Education, the agency will continue to disburse federal aid like Pell Grants and Federal Direct Loans during a potential shutdown. And yes, borrowers will still be required to make payments during this time.

According to an internal email, the Park Service will keep national parks open, but that could be problematic, as the New York Times notes:

“Park roads, lookouts, trails and open-air memorials will generally remain accessible to visitors,” Jessica Bowron, the park service’s acting director, wrote in the email on Tuesday to park officials.

Parks that have a bank of funds from entrance fees should use it to “provide basic visitor services,” Bowron wrote, including maintaining restrooms and roads, collecting trash, operating campgrounds, policing and staffing entrances. During the government shutdown of December 2018 to January 2019, the Trump administration furloughed most workers but kept the parks open, resulting in overflowing toilets, piles of trash and damage to fragile ecosystems. The administration also tapped entrance fees, which the Government Accountability Office later found was an illegal use of funds.

Schumer told reporters that resolving the shutdown standoff is up to the Republicans, saying Trump could call his party’s leadership and direct them to address Democrats’ concerns.

“Democrats do not want a shutdown. We stand ready to work with Republicans to find a bipartisan compromise, and the ball’s in their court,” he said.

Schumer addressed Trump’s earlier comments in which he said his administration could cut federal workers as well as programs Democrats like.

“Trump admitted himself that he is using Americans as political pawns,” Schumer said.

From Punchbowl News:

Senate will vote around 5:30pm on the dueling govt funding bills — the House-passed CR and the Democratic counter-proposal.

Both are expected to fail. But there could be 1-2 additional Dem votes for the House bill (other than Fetterman).

Federal funding expires at midnight EST

As a potential government shutdown looms, Americans are reportedly unhappy with their political leaders regardless of party. A Pew Research survey found Americans have largely unfavorable views of Trump, Vice-President J.D. Vance, Jeffries, Schumer, Johnson, and Thune.

🚨NEW: Ahead of a possible shutdown of the federal government, Americans have more negative than positive views of........

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