It’s definitely possible to overreact to special-election results. These episodic contests, often far downballot, tend to attract low, sometimes skewed voter turnout. But the special elections held since Donald Trump’s 2024 victory add to the evidence that his party is headed for some real problems in November.

The latest Democratic win is quite the shocker: In a very large (larger than a U.S. House district) state-senate district deep in the heart of Texas that Trump won by 17 points, local union leader and Democrat Taylor Rehmet trounced veteran conservative activist Leigh Wambsganss by 14 points (it was technically a runoff election for the two candidates who finished first and second in the first round in November). There’s nothing about this traditionally very conservative Fort Worth–area district that made it particularly susceptible to an upset of this depth, which contributes to the sense that it’s part of a national vibe shift, as this account of recent state legislative special-election trend lines indicates:

Democratic flips - Special elections

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