While diplomatic discussions appear to be underway between the U.S. and Iran, as of now there is still no end in sight for the Iran war. It’s also far from clear what President Donald Trump will do next. He reportedly wants to limit the war to four-to-six weeks and has already repeatedly declared victory. Yet he is also clearly considering various plans for sending U.S. ground troops onto Iranian soil, which would be a serious and risky escalation. Here’s what we know about those plans.

. Has Trump ordered boots on the ground?

Not yet. It’s still in the planning stages, but there are increasing signs that he will pull this trigger.

. If Trump is going to invade Iran, when might that happen?

We don’t know yet, but the first additional troops deployed to the region — the 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit — should get to the Strait of Hormuz within days.

The next pressure point for the war, timingwise, had been Friday, when Trump’s five-day extended deadline for Iran to cut a deal with the U.S. was supposed to end. Then Trump extended the deadline by another ten days until the night of Monday, April 6.

If no deal materializes — as of now, one doesn’t seem likely — Trump may order escalatory attacks. It also possible that Trump declares and end to negotiations before then, or is once again using them as a ruse, as he did ahead of the U.S. air strikes during the 12-day war last year.

On Saturday, the Washington Post reported that the Pentagon is preparing for weeks of ground operations, according to U.S. officials:

Any potential ground operation would fall short of a full-scale invasion and could instead involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, said the officials. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly sensitive military plans that have been in development for weeks. …Discussions within the administration over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said. One person said that the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete. Another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months.”

Any potential ground operation would fall short of a full-scale invasion and could instead involve raids by a mixture of Special Operations forces and conventional infantry troops, said the officials. All spoke on the condition of anonymity to discuss highly sensitive military plans that have been in development for weeks. …

Discussions within the administration over the past month have touched upon the possible seizure of Kharg Island, a key Iranian oil export hub in the Persian Gulf, and raids into other coastal areas near the Strait of Hormuz to find and destroy weapons that can target commercial and military shipping, officials said. One person said that the objectives under consideration would probably take “weeks, not months” to complete. Another put the potential timeline at “a couple of months.”

On Thursday, Axios reported that the Pentagon is “developing military options for a ‘final blow’ in Iran that could include the use of ground forces and a massive bombing campaign, according to two U.S. officials and two sources with knowledge:

A dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks and, in particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Some U.S. officials think a crushing show of force to conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory.

A dramatic military escalation will grow more likely if no progress is made in diplomatic talks and, in particular, if the Strait of Hormuz remains closed. Some U.S. officials think a crushing show of force to conclude the fighting would create more leverage in peace talks or simply give Trump something to point to and declare victory.

. Will it actually be an invasion?

Trump and administration officials may never officially refer to it as one. Trump and Secretary of War Pete Hegseth already complain about anyone calling the current conflict a war, instead insisting it’s an “excursion” or “operation.” They may never admit that such operations constitute “boots on the ground,” either.

Regardless, sending American troops onto Iranian soil is by definition an invasion, though, at least at the start, it would not be an invasion on the same scale as what the U.S. previously did in Afghanistan and Iraq. Some 150,000 troops were deployed to the Middle East ahead of the invasion of Iraq in 2003. Right now the Pentagon is considering plans to increase the number of ground troops in the region to more than 17,000.

. Which U.S. troops are headed for the region, and when will they get there?

Three groups of U.S. troops are en route to the Middle East:

The 31st Marine Expeditionary Unit and Tripoli Amphibious Ready GroupThis group — which includes the amphibious assault ship USS Tripoli, the amphibious landing dock USS New Orleans, and about 2,200 U.S. Marines and sailors — arrived at CENTCOM on Saturday but will need another few days to reach the Strait of Hormuz, according to The Wall Street Journal.

The 11th Marine Expeditionary Unit and Boxer Amphibious Ready GroupThis group — which includes the amphibious assault ship USS Boxer, the amphibious transport dock ship USS Portland, the dock landing ship USS Comstock, and roughly 2,500 U.S. Marines and sailors — deployed from San Diego on March 19 and 20 and isn’t expected to arrive in the region until mid-April at the earliest.

Between the two groups, about 4,500 to 5,000 U.S. Marines are en route to the region.

A brigade from the 82nd Airborne DivisionThe Pentagon is also reportedly deploying between 2,000 and 3,000 troops from the 82nd Airborne’s elite Immediate Response Force to the Middle East, though the timetable for when they will arrive is not clear. Per the Washington Post:

The deployment includes two infantry battalions plus the headquarters unit of the division, one of the officials said. Many of the soldiers are with the division’s Immediate Response Force, a unit that is trained to deploy on 18 hours’ notice for missions as varied as seizing airfields and other critical infrastructure, reinforcing U.S. embassies and enabling emergency evacuations. Immediate Response Force duties rotate among infantry units in the 82nd Airborne Division.

The deployment includes two infantry battalions plus the headquarters unit of the division, one of the officials said. Many of the soldiers are with the division’s Immediate Response Force, a unit that is trained to deploy on 18 hours’ notice for missions as varied as seizing airfields and other critical infrastructure, reinforcing U.S. embassies and enabling emergency evacuations. Immediate Response Force duties rotate among infantry units in the 82nd Airborne Division.

. Will the U.S. send more?

That’s certainly possible. The Wall Street Journal reports:

The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said. The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.

The Pentagon is looking at sending up to 10,000 additional ground troops to the Middle East to give President Trump more military options even as he weighs peace talks with Tehran, Department of Defense officials with knowledge of the planning said. The force, which would likely include infantry and armored vehicles, would be added to the roughly 5,000 Marines and the thousands of paratroopers from the 82nd Airborne Division who have already been ordered to the region.

. What would the troops do where?

Again, nothing is confirmed at this point, but several targets are reportedly being considered to protect shipping traffic in the Strait of Hormuz and Persian Gulf, eliminate Iran’s nuclear capabilities, and/or force the Iranian regime to capitulate to U.S demands.

Kharg IslandOne potential target could be Kharg Island, the small island that serves as Iran’s critical oil-trading hub in the northern Persian Gulf. It’s possible the U.S. could blockade or invade the island in order to disrupt Iran’s oil economy and hold the island hostage to use as a bargaining chip.

Iran’s Natanz and Isfahan nuclear sitesAnother proposed operation would send U.S. Special Forces to seize Iran’s stockpiles of highly enriched uranium at its Natanz and Isfahan sites. Such operations would be especially complicated and risky since they would likely require not just attacking and taking control of the sites but establishing a perimeter around them deep inside Iran and fending off Iranian forces for as long as it takes for Special Forces to locate and either remove or destroy the stockpiles.

Larak IslandAnother target for U.S. invasion could be Larak Island, which is off the coast of Iran in the Strait of Hormuz and hosts heavily fortified Iranian military bunkers and other assets used to conduct strikes in the strait and the Persian Gulf.

Abu Musa and two other islands in the strait’s elbowThe islands Abu Musa, Greater Tunb, and Lesser Tunb — all of which Iran controls, but have also been long claimed by the UAE — are in the middle of the western entrance to the Strait of Hormuz. All three islands host Iranian military outposts.

Qeshm IslandIran also reportedly has heavily fortified military assets on the island of Qeshm, which is 14 miles from Bandar Abbas just off the coast of Iran near the Strait of Hormuz. It’s the largest island in the Gulf, and has a population of nearly 150,000 people.

. How risky would the invasion be?

Very risky for U.S. servicemembers.

Iran has well-trained forces, including combat veterans who have fought in Syria, and has reportedly been preparing for any incursion by foreign troops. It almost certainly has the capability to engage invading U.S. forces in a number of ways that risk high numbers of casualties.

For instance, CNN reports that Iran has been building up its defenses on Kharg Island:

The island has layered defenses, and the Iranians have moved additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile systems known as MANPADs there in recent weeks, the sources said. Iran has also been laying traps including anti-personnel and anti-armor mines around the island, the sources said, including on the shoreline where US troops could possibly stage an amphibious landing if President Donald Trump moved forward with a ground operation.

The island has layered defenses, and the Iranians have moved additional shoulder-fired, surface-to-air guided missile systems known as MANPADs there in recent weeks, the sources said. Iran has also been laying traps including anti-personnel and anti-armor mines around the island, the sources said, including on the shoreline where US troops could possibly stage an amphibious landing if President Donald Trump moved forward with a ground operation.

Even if they were only briefly on the ground, U.S. forces could be subject to attacks by short-range missiles, drones, artillery, as well as loitering munitions. It would also be risky to resupply any forces attempting to hold any territory if U.S. naval ships remain subject to Iranian drone attacks and if Iran targets potential runways with ballistic missiles.

The other risk would be further escalation of the war itself. Rather than presenting an off-ramp, sending in ground troops would likely extend and expand the war, drive up its many costs, and prompt additional complications. Any invasion would not just provoke Iran to defend against the invading troops themselves but also to retaliate against various targets throughout the region, which could exacerbate the global energy crisis, draw additional countries into direct conflict, and more.

. Are the ground troops just being deployed for show?

It’s certainly possible that Trump is sending troops to the region only in an attempt to regain leverage in negotiations to pause or end the conflict — and that’s a rationale U.S. officials have suggested, as Axios reported on Tuesday:

To the Trump administration, the massing of forces is a sign he’s serious about negotiating from gunboats, not that he’s negotiating in bad faith. “Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist, waiting to punch you in the f***ing face,” said a Trump adviser.

To the Trump administration, the massing of forces is a sign he’s serious about negotiating from gunboats, not that he’s negotiating in bad faith. “Trump has a hand open for a deal and the other is a fist, waiting to punch you in the f***ing face,” said a Trump adviser.

In other words, Trump is pursuing both escalation and deescalation at the same time, and we don’t know which way he’ll go.

This post has been updated.

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