Though President Donald Trump continues to insist that the war with Iran is a spectacular success, four weeks after the U.S. and Israel attacked, the conflict is still a complete mess with no end in sight. It could also get a lot worse, from the possibility of U.S. troops invading Iran to the likelihood of more extreme global economic consequences. Though the decision to launch the war was his and his alone, the chances of Trump admitting it was in any way a mistake are extremely slim. The chances of him admitting it was his mistake are essentially zero. But if he or other administration officials ever do try to pin the war on anyone, here are the most likely candidates.

The Israeli prime minister has sought war against Iran for more than three decades, and in Donald Trump he finally found a U.S. president willing to go all in on one. He reportedly spoke to Trump at least 17 times in the months preceding the initial attacks, starting with an in-person meeting at Mar-a-Lago in late December, when Netanyahu pitched another round of air strikes targeting Iran’s ballistic missile capabilities. After Iran’s regime conducted a brutal crackdown and massacred thousands of protesters despite Trump vowing to retaliate if that happened, Trump ordered a military buildup in the Middle East and the discussions with Netanyahu shifted to a more extensive joint-operation. As the Trump administration pursued nuclear negotiations with Iran, Netanyahu made the case for decapitation strikes targeting supreme leader Ali Khamenei and other top regime officials.

Among his closing arguments, Netanyahu reportedly told Trump he would never have a better chance to pursue regime change, counter the Iranian threat, and make history. He also sold the idea of getting justice for Iran’s alleged attempts to assassinate Trump. Netanyahu was not alone in personally making the case for war to Trump. It’s also not clear that Netanyahu’s efforts were the decisive factor, and he, Trump, and Trump officials have pushed back on the idea that Trump followed Netanyahu and Israel into the war. But he’s also a literal architect of the war, and whatever rationale he was selling, Trump was happily buying.

The Secretary of War makes a big public spectacle of himself every chance he gets to talk about how great the war is going and how incredible Trump is for launching it. He’s been the guy in the administration who says things like “we negotiate with bombs” and “the world, the Middle East, our ungrateful allies in Europe, and even segments of our own press should be saying one thing to Trump: thank you.”

Hegseth was also, according to Trump, the war’s original proponent in his cabinet. “Pete, I think you were the first one to speak up and you said, ‘Let’s do it because you can’t let them have a nuclear weapon,’” Trump said in an aside to Hegseth during an event on Monday. The next day, Trump told reporters that Hegseth was disappointed that there might be a deal to end the war.........

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