After the U.S. rescued an airman who had been shot down above Iran over the weekend, President Trump threatened to commit war crimes against the country if it did not reopen the Strait of Hormuz, the near-closure of which is creating an oil and gas crisis around the world. “Tuesday will be Power Plant Day, and Bridge Day, all wrapped up in one, in Iran,” he posted on Truth Social. “Open the Fuckin’ Strait, you crazy bastards, or you’ll be living in Hell - JUST WATCH!” But Trump’s unhinged and desperate bravado speaks to his lack of tangible accomplishments— or a coherent exit strategy — six weeks into the war he helped start. The U.S. and Israel continue to bombard Iran, but there has been no sign that the regime is crumbling; Iran, meanwhile, is still militarily capable enough to wreak havoc on its neighbors and maintain control of the waterway that may be its biggest bargaining chip. And as the war drags on, Trump is bleeding support from his nominal allies and from American voters.

To understand how the Trump administration so badly misjudged its adversary (despite loud and abundant warnings) and how Iran might use its newfound leverage at the negotiating table, I spoke with Vali Nasr, one of the world’s foremost experts on Iranian politics. Nasr has had a long career in academia and government, including serving as a senior advisor in the Obama State Department. He is a professor at Johns Hopkins University’s School of International Studies, where he was the dean for several years, and is the author of Iran’s Grand Strategy and many other books.

You told the Wall Street Journal recently that “To the Iranians, the Strait of Hormuz now matters more than the nuclear program. The nuclear program was symbolic, but didn’t provide them with any deterrence. Now, the only reason why they are surviving this war is because of the strait.” Iran fully understands the leverage they have here, so do you think Trump would accept a deal where Iran reopens the strait but can still close it at any point in the future?Well, I don’t know what choice the U.S. has. If Trump is looking for total victory here, then he’s setting himself up for a much larger war. He thought it’d be a short war, that the regime in Iran would go in a different direction. We’re now into the second month, and it’s not unfolding the way he wanted it. It’s gone longer, and has cost much more. So if he wants for Iran to have no say about if and when the Strait of Hormuz closes in the future, he needs to pursue this war into a much more expansive and longer phase.

Reports indicate that Iran maintains a significant capacity to launch missiles and drones. Let’s say there is a more prolonged war, or at least more prolonged than a couple of weeks. How do you see Iran’s capacity to fight something like that?For now, they have the ability. I don’t see a collapse yet of social order in Iran, of daily life, of electricity, fuel, food.Yes, the population is under enormous pressure, but the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps is able to fight, and the kind of fight needed to keep the Strait of Hormuz closed is not the same as the ability to fight against Israel with sophisticated, large-scale ballistic missiles that can get through the Iron Dome. This is a much lower-level war. You can hit a tanker with a very cheap drone, and that will affect the willingness of companies to put their tankers through the Gulf.

Neither side of this war can go on forever. The question is what is the pain threshold for each side, and what is their level of endurance going forward? Iran’s endurance so far has been greater than what President Trump anticipated or Israel anticipated at the beginning. Maybe Iran will collapse tomorrow morning, or in two weeks. Maybe they can go on for another six months. Ultimately, President Trump cannot only be thinking about Iran’s breaking point. He has to be thinking about his own threshold of pain.

Iran has quite a bit of leverage, as we’ve established. So what kind of........

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