Photo: George Wuerthner.

I frequently read anecdotes and even research suggesting that “active forest management” can successfully slow or stop wildfires. In my experience, many of these claims ignore the role of changing weather conditions in fire control. For instance, despite the efforts of over 10,000 firefighters, the 1988 Yellowstone fire was only extinguished by snowfall on September 11, which finally enabled control of the fire.

The Milli Fire on Oregon’s Deschutes National Forest is a more recent example of how changing weather led to false claims that active forest management “saved” the community of Sisters, Oregon, from the wildfire.

In 2017, the Milli Fire charred approximately 24,000 acres. It burned within 4 miles of Sisters, Oregon, where proponents of active forest management, including the Deschutes Collaborative and Forest Service, claim fuel reductions slowed the fire’s advance and “saved” the community.

Local politicians, county commissioners, and even Oregon Senator Merkley now refer to the Milli Fire to justify increased federal spending on fuel-reduction projects.

But, like so much happy talk from agencies and other organizations, there is more nuance to the explanation than is readily admitted. The details tell a different story from the one promoted by fuel reduction advocates.

A bit of history. A lightning strike on August 11, 2017, within the Three Sisters Wilderness near Black Crater Lake ignited the flames. The fire took a month to contain fully, and at its peak, 675 firefighters were engaged in suppressing the blaze.

By August 18, the Milli Fire was burning through the pathway of two previous fires—the Black Crater and Pole Creek blazes. According to the incident reports, “high winds and hot dry weather” made containment difficult.

Keep in mind that by this time, the Milli Fire was under active suppression efforts, with hundreds of firefighters, bulldozers, air tankers, and helicopters working to contain it. Crews cleared heavy fuels along the fire line using bulldozers and other heavy........

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