CounterPunch Exclusives

CounterPunch Exclusives

What Trump’s Iran “Excursion” Cost US Allies

Photograph Source: U.S. Navy photo – Public Domain

In his recent social media diatribes, Donald Trump has complained that our allies are ungrateful for the war he has initiated against Iran. He is angered that they aren’t anxious to send in their military forces to win a war that he claims is already won. Trump also doesn’t seem to think it matters that he never consulted, or even warned, any US allies, with the notable exception of Israel.

To anyone not in the Trump cult, these complaints qualify as batshit crazy. Trump’s war is a massive whack to economies across the world. These countries are not grateful for an economic hit that is equivalent to a massive weather disaster or serious pandemic.

How bad the economic hit ends up being depends on both how long the war continues and the lasting damage it does to physical facilities. But a cheap and easy calculation is to look at how much the rise in oil prices costs countries relative to the size of their economies.

This is the picture based on the assumption that oil prices have risen $40 a barrel from the pre-war level and remain there for a full year. I don’t have a crystal ball that tells me whether prices will stay at this level. There are many analysts arguing that they could go considerably higher. And if the Hormuz Straits are opened soon, whether by military action or a peace agreement, they will presumably........

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