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Fewer Immigrants Means Fewer Workers, Less Growth

14 1
05.09.2025

One of the releases from the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) that gets relatively little attention is its annual projections for growth in employment by industry and occupation over the next decade. BLS’s latest numbers are worth at least a few minutes of thought.

BLS projects that the economy will add 5.2 million jobs between 2024 and 2034, an average of 520,000 a year or 43,000 a month. That compares to job growth of 19.2 million in the decade from 2014 to 2024.

The slower job growth should not be a surprise. Immigrants accounted for 6.6 million of the job growth in the decade from 2014 to 2024. As a matter of policy, the government is now sharply limiting immigration going forward and deporting many of the people who are already here. The growth of foreign-born workers in the labor force will clearly be far less going forward than it was in the last decade.

The baby boom cohorts are also retiring in large numbers. In 2024 the baby boomers were between the ages of 60........

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